It’s election day. The day on which all right thinking people walk a few blocks through crisp autumn air, kicking through the maple leaves, to join their neighbors in person to participate in a sacred rite (and also right) of democracy.
Okay, so most of us don’t vote at a neighborhood polling place any more. (I’ve never understood why the left, so much into the “warmth of collectivism” and community wants people to exercise their most profound civic obligation all by themselves as rugged individuals.) And if you did walk to the polls today the air would be more soggy than crisp and the leaves will be slippery mush beneath your feet. Nonetheless, the day on which the votes are counted remains sacred.
After I vote today I’ll be doing color commentary on Channel 3 in Madison and on the web at Channel3000 with my copundit Branden Scholz and host Susan Simon.
There’s a lot going on in this election and we could parse it endlessly, but I think it could all boil down to three races just west of Madison: The 3rd Congressional District, the 17th Senate District and the 51st Assembly District. All three districts are held by Republican incumbents and all three were close in the last presidential election. If the Democrats run the table on these it’s a good indication that it’s a wave year here and across the nation. Two out of three would suggest it will be a solid year for the Dems. If they win just one of the three they’ll be disappointed. And if they’re shut out, well, let the finger-pointing commence.
Let’s break them down.
The 3rd CD is a rematch between incumbent Derrick Van Orden and his Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke. Cooke lost by less than 12,000 votes two years ago and a strong year for her party should be enough to overcome that small gap. Moreover, Van Orden isn’t doing what other Republicans might do in a swing district. Rather than running away from the deeply unpopular Donald Trump, Van Orden is mostly embracing his MAGA bona fides. It doesn’t seem likely that firing up the MAGA base will be enough to make up for the independents that he drives away. This district is also a bellwether for national Dem hopes to take back the House. That’s almost a certainty, but if they don’t win here, that majority could wind up being razor thin.
The 17th Senate District has been held since 2015 by moderate Republican Howard Marklein. Even before redistricting made this a marginally Democratic district, the Democrats had targeted it, but without success. The understated accountant, Marklien, is the kind of Republican that can capture independents. But now with a slight built-in edge, the Democrats are pressing their advantage. Their candidate is State Rep. Jenna Jacobs, who already represents a third of the district. The Democrats only need two seats to take control of the Senate and they are more or less assured of picking those up in Racine and in the western Milwaukee suburbs. Winning here would give them a two seat margin and defeating a long-term popular incumbent might suggest a wave is happening.
The 51st Assembly District makes up one-third of the 17th Senate District. It includes Dodgeville, Mineral Point and environs. Again, it shades blue, but Republican Todd Novak has been the kind of moderate that can win in a marginal district. He’s no MAGA darling, instead emphasizing how he has been able to work across the aisle. But his Democratic challenger, Ben Gruber, seems tailor made for this district. He’s had a career in law enforcement, including as a state park ranger. This is one of three toss-up Assembly seats that Democrats need to win in order to have a chance to flip the house. They need five seats total and two others — one in the Fox Valley and the other in the south Milwaukee suburbs — look likely to come their way. So, if Gruber wins it doesn’t assure them an Assembly majority, but it goes a long way in that direction.
Nationally, we might look for early results coming out of a few Congressional districts in Florida. Polls close there at 6PM our time and Florida counts fast. If Democrats win some newly drawn districts designed to favor Republicans it could mean that a wave is headed our way.
To sum up, Democrats are very optimistic. They think they’ll sweep both houses of Congress and the Wisconsin State Legislature as well as keeping the Wisconsin governor’s and AG’s offices in Democratic hands. If they come up short in any one of those, they’ll be disappointed.
