Before I get to today’s topic, let me just say, BREWERS WIN! BREWERS WIN! BREWERS WIN!
The latest Marquette Law School poll, and the last one before the election, is out and, as per usual, it’s packed with interesting stuff. For example:
Crowley’s lead grows. David Crowley increased his lead over Tom Tiffany from 3% a month ago to 7% today. Moreover, Crowley’s net approval rating went from -13 in September to -7 now. Tiffany’s went in the other direction from -6 to -10. And this despite a substantial fundraising advantage for Team Tom.
Dems are eager to vote. The Democrats maintain an 8% advantage in their enthusiasm to vote. Fully 57% of Democrats say they’re excited to vote compared to 49% of Republicans and only 35% of independents.
Legislative races follow suit. When asked about their generic preferences for legislative races, the numbers mirror those for the governor’s race, 51 – 44 for the Democrats. That suggests to me that people are voting less for the candidate than for the party. Republicans are unpopular so they’re choosing the alternative. This bodes well for a Democratic takeover of the Senate and it puts them in shouting distance of the Assembly as well. Not surprisingly, the better Crowley does, the better the rest of his party will do.
Higher turnout benefits Republicans. Crowley’s and legislative Democrats’ lead shrinks when we look at registered voters instead of likely voters. So, if the less engaged voters show up in bigger numbers than expected, the races could tighten or even go the other way. This has been true for several cycles now and yet Republicans still try to suppress turnout. Doesn’t make sense.
Most want one party rule. I was surprised to find that only 38% want Democrats and Republicans to share power while 60% of us want one party rule. I’ve seen other polls where most Americans wanted divided government. I wasn’t too surprised to see that 65% of Democrats wanted to run everything as this is the party of government. They want fewer impediments to pass more laws. But 59% of Republicans wanted complete control as well. That runs counter to classic conservative philosophy where passing a law should be hard. I was also disheartened to find that even independents were evenly split on this question with 49% on either side of it. I am a staunch supporter of divided government because I think it keeps each party’s nut jobs in check and forces compromise and thus produces better, more thoughtful answers to public problems. I wish more people agreed with me, but I suppose that in extremely polarized times this result should not have surprised me as much as it did.
Support for the DSA. While we’re on the subject of stuff that disappointed me, it turns out that 65% of my fellow Democrats have a positive view of Democratic Socialism. I hope and trust that they have not read the DSA platform, which calls for eliminating the police, emptying jails, getting rid of the U.S. Senate and destroying an independent judiciary.
Both parties are out of touch. Back to something I find encouraging. Voters recognize that both parties have gone off the rails with 51% saying the Democrats are too liberal and 49% saying that Republicans are too conservative. Only 30% said the Democrats were just about right and 35% said the same thing about the GOP.
It’s a center-right state. Moreover, a third of voters, 35%, describe themselves as moderate, while 39% say they are either very or somewhat conservative and only 26% say they are very or somewhat liberal. A slight majority, 52 – 47, would prefer lower taxes over more services. So, this is a center-right state. It’s neither MAGA-land nor a DSA cell.
What’s the bottom line? Crowley will likely win and his party will probably take over the state Senate and perhaps the Assembly majority as well. But they should not read that as a mandate for liberal policies, but rather a rejection of Trump and his party. They need to proceed with caution.
And, finally, let me just point out: BREWERS WIN! BREWERS WIN! BREWERS WIN!
