Disarray

My party is being very much my party.

Just as its crowded gubernatorial primary was coalescing around the candidate most likely to win in November, that candidate’s campaign stumbled hard, her less electable opponents pounced and, just like that, somebody else will get the nomination.

Sara Rodriguez, who had been steadily gaining momentum saw it all crash down in the space of an awful week. That happened not because of anything she had done herself, but because she had, as is necessary for any candidate, put her faith in her campaign manager. And her campaign manager turned out to be dishonest and incompetent.

I’m not letting her off the hook though. There is a certain amount of judgement in play here that can be justifiably attributed to the candidate. Because you have to rely so heavily on the people around you, choosing the right people is an important skill. So, it’s not like it’s all so terribly unfair to Rodriguez, but it is a mess for the Democratic Party.

When Rodriguez exited the race on Friday we thought we were left with four candidates. We thought that for a couple of hours. Then it started to become clear that David Crowley would get back in the race and shortly after that rumors began circulating that Gov. Tony Evers would endorse him.

On Saturday those two things happened. The odd man out in all of this is Joel Brennan. It was a safe assumption that Rodriguez’ support would move his way and turn a struggling campaign into something a lot more viable.

So, the first mystery in a mystifying week is why Evers chose Crowley, who had already conceded his lack of support, and not Brennan, who at least was still in the fight. One theory is that Brennan got crosswise with the boss or with some of his staff at some point over his four years as DOA Secretary.

But another theory (my own, which I offer with not a shred of evidence, but just my pure speculation, which has proven so incredibly prescient in the last couple of weeks) goes like this. The priority is to stop Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong. There was a conclusion that Brennan couldn’t pull that off and Kelda Roys is too much the Madison liberal to win in November. So, they pulled Crowley off the sidelines because the excitement of potentially electing the first black Wisconsin governor would be enough for the Democratic base to reject Hong.

If that’s the idea it has a drawback, which is that Crowley is almost as much of a questionable general election candidate as is Roys. That’s not because he’s black. After all, Barack Obama won here twice and easily both times and Evers won in 2018 with Mandela Barnes on the ticket with him. No, the problem for Crowley is that he has been Milwaukee County Executive since 2019. There are few things less popular in the state of Wisconsin than the Chicago Bears, manhattans made with dry vermouth and Milwaukee. And it’s a hard place to govern. Every urban problem Milwaukee has will be blamed on Crowley. The question Tom Tiffany will ask over and over again is, ‘Do we want Wisconsin to become Milwaukee?’

Now, you could argue that Scott Walker won from that same position back in 2010. But Walker was running against Milwaukee and his opponent was Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. So voters had the choice of two Milwaukee candidates, one who represented the city and one who was running away from it. That won’t be the case this time. Crowley won’t attack his own county and Tiffany is spending the summer portraying himself as the most Wisconsin guy since Charlie Berens.

So, while I certainly understand why moderate Democrats want to coalesce behind one candidate, I’m not sure Crowley is the best choice. But the calculation on Evers’ part may be that he’s got the best shot at the nomination and we’ll worry about the fall after August 11th.

The next twist shows up on Wednesday when the long anticipated Marquette poll comes out. In fact, the biggest loser in all of this might be poor Charles Franklin, the respected pollster. His team was in the field during a week when everything changed. Rodriguez will still be on the list while Crowley won’t. But the results won’t be totally useless. I’ll be looking for the relative strength between the two hard left candidates — Hong and Barnes — and the less leftist candidates — Rodriguez, Brennan and Roys.

As for Roys, don’t count her out. She’s got some money and she’s portraying herself as a progressive activist, but without the deadly socialist brand. And now she can also portray herself as the outsider victim of the big establishment machine.

And to make these coming poll results still more dicey, it’s no accident that the Republican Governors Association chose last week to run ads promoting Hong. They want to boost her numbers and make her look unstoppable going into the primary because they see her — quite rightly — as the easiest candidate to beat.

And one last thing. This underscores why early voting is such a mistake. Something like 60,000 ballots have already been cast. If you voted for Rodriguez your vote was wasted. And, with Crowley still technically on the ballot but having dropped out, he’ll suffer from lost opportunities to get those votes now that he’s back in. I’ve long been a voice in the wilderness, advocating for a return to in-person voting on election day. That still won’t happen, but I take comfort in the fact that I can say I told you so.

Following the Biden-Harris debacle and the Graham Platner mess, my party looks more disorganized and chaotic than ever. This last week’s drama can’t improve the image of a party already at its lowest approval ratings on record.

So who actually had a great week? Tom Tiffany.