Being a socialist could well bury a candidate in the general election. The trouble for Democrats is that it could win a candidate their nomination in August.
It was conceded that the latest Marquette poll, which came out yesterday, was going to be of limited utility. But limited is not the same as useless. I think there were some things of note.
To step back, Marquette was in the field last week just as the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was changing fast. The leader of the moderate wing of the party, Sara Rodriguez, dropped out and a new presumptive leader of that group, David Crowley, dropped back in — and with Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement. The poll couldn’t take any of that into account and so Marquette will do a do over and we’ll see another set of results in a week or two.
But there were three things that struck me from this round.
First, Francesca Hong is going to be tough to beat. Not surprisingly, she leads with 26%, followed by Mandela Barnes at 15% and Rodriguez at 11%. And Hong’s support is the strongest, with 72% of her voters saying they are sure they will vote for her.
So, even the leading moderate candidate at the time was down by 15 point. It’s hard to see how Crowley, who apparently was only at around 5% before he dropped out, can make up that ground. Sure, there are 45% of Democrats still to make up their minds, but some of those voters could be undecided between Hong and Barnes. It’s not necessarily all, or even mostly, moderates looking to coalesce behind one candidate.
In fact, even if you spot Crowley Rodriguez’ 11%, he’d still have to capture two-thirds of the undecideds to over take Hong. Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys are polling at only 2% and 1%, respectively. So, even if they were to drop out and endorse Crowley it wouldn’t have any effect. And then there’s blow back against the party establishment trying to snuff out the insurgent populist. All of which is to say that I’d be surprised if the next poll finds Crowley anywhere near striking distance of Hong.
The second thing I noticed is that nobody is doing especially well against Republican Tom Tiffany in head-to-head matchups. It’s essentially a toss up. Barnes does best, beating him by 4%, but all of the other candidates lose to him by a point or two. The specific numbers don’t mean anything, but this shows how close the race will be in the fall.
Still, give Democrats a built-in edge simply because they are more fired up to vote than Republicans.
For now.
Except for my last point.
Which is that socialism is toxic. These are the numbers that I found most troubling. Around 55% of Democrats have a favorable impression of Democratic Socialism while about 55% of all voters have an unfavorable view of that term. That means that the only declared socialist in the race, Hong, has a good chance of getting the nomination… and then losing in the general election, when Republicans will spare no effort in making voters aware of her label.
To make matters worse, Democrats don’t seem to see it coming. Fully 69% of Hong voters, even slightly more than the 67% of Democrats overall, say that picking a candidate who can win against Tiffany is the most important thing. And yet they are about to nominate a candidate who proudly embraces a toxic label. The problem is that the party has moved so far to the left that it just doesn’t see the toxicity.
I would be shocked if, all of a sudden, Crowley emerges from the ashes to take a lead over Hong. And keep in mind that, while Crowley gears back up, mail-in voting continues apace. He’s losing ground every day.
One more thought before I go back to my summer. Evers may have picked the wrong horse. Barnes may be the better bet to head off Hong. Many Democrats are disappointed in him for not beating Sen. Ron Johnson when he was the party’s nominee in 2022 and he has his own hard-left baggage, But he did lose by only 20,000 votes, he is not a Democratic Socialist, he is the only candidate to beat Tiffany in the matchups, and he does much better than Hong with a wider swath of Democrats.
But, ya know, I’ve been wrong before. See you back here after we hear from Uncle Charles Franklin next.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 