When the field was set for the Wisconsin governors race late last year I thought I had it figured out. Republicans would nominate Tom Tiffany, who would be a weak candidate in November. The Democratic contest would come down to Sara Rodriguez, representing the moderate wing of the party, while Mandela Barnes would be the favorite of the hard-left.
Yeah, well…
Tiffany does, in fact, have the nomination locked down, but he’s looking more formidable than I had thought. Without a meaningful primary, he’s been able to cast himself as a regular Wisconsin guy. Democrats won’t allow him to sweep his heavy MAGA past (he voted to reject his own state’s electoral votes after the 2020 election and now he says some January 6 insurrectionists deserve taxpayer money) under the rug, but for now he’s gotten off to a good start. He’s defining himself while the Democrats are still muddled about who will take him on.
The eight candidate Democratic field is divided into two camps: those with a better than even chance of defeating Tiffany and those whose chances are less than 50%. But it’s the two most risky candidates — Francesca Hong and Barnes — who are leading the pack right now. In the last Marquette poll Hong was at 14% with Barnes trailing at 11%. The five moderates — Rodriguez, Joel Brennan, David Crowley, Kelda Roys and Missy Hughes — were all barely registering at under 3%. The eighth candidate is the eccentric gadfly Kirk Bangstad, who will take some votes from Hong and Barnes, but shouldn’t be a serious contender.
I’m surprised that no one has broken out of the moderate pack. What I’m hearing from fellow moderates is that they just want someone who can win and they’re waiting to see who that might be. But if they don’t coalesce behind somebody soon there is a real chance that the nomination will go to Hong or maybe Barnes. Hong, in particular, is the Graham Platner or maybe the Zohran Mamdani of this race. Some part of the Democratic base wants a populist. It’s not clear yet if that part of the base is as big as it is in Maine or New York, but it’s nothing to take lightly.
One thing that might save the moderates is the fact that there are two candidates vying for the hard-left vote — and three if you count Bangstad. But if Barnes were to drop out (pushed out by progressives who tell him he had his chance against Ron Johnson) and all five moderates stayed in the race that would be a real boost for Hong — and ultimately for Tiffany.
Right now, it looks from here (and here is actually in Michigan) that Brennan has the best chance to break from the pack, but only because his brother-in-law, Exact Sciences founder Kevin Conroy, has the potential to dump a small fortune into his camp. And Brennan would, in fact, have a fair shot at beating Tiffany.
As a moderate Dem myself, I’m with everyone else in wait-and-see mode. I like all of the five candidates, but I’m not particularly excited by any of them. What would have gotten me fired up was an outspoken moderate like Rahm Emanuel, someone who articulated a clear, unapologetic moderate message and who wasn’t afraid to take on the array of special interest groups that define the party.
As it is, Hong and Barnes articulate a strong message that is exciting the hard-left. I don’t agree with much of it, but it’s working for them. Meanwhile the moderates mush through the muck, all pressing the standard buttons by rote — “fully fund public education,” and so on and so forth. None of them dares to break from the pack and say something different and interesting.
And, in the end, that could prove fatal. If one of the moderates does get the nomination, they won’t run on anything novel. And because their message will be so uninspired, what they’ll really do is just run against Tiffany, just as nationally the Dems, without any agenda of their own, run against Trump. Their message will essentially be: “Yeah, I’m more of the same, but do you really want THAT guy?”
That still might work. But if Tiffany is able to use this summer to define himself as a guy you might want to have an old fashioned with, it might be too late for Democrats to remind voters what a MAGA extremist he actually has been. Tiffany, without a primary, could spend the summer moving to the center and defining himself as an average Wisconsin guy, then use his saved resources to blast whoever the Dems nominate as an out-of-touch and out-to-lunch liberal from the moment they win the primary.
Back in December I was confident we’d elect another Democrat as governor. Almost six months later, I’m not so sure.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 