As state Democratic leaders start to pull together their governing agenda one item that has been conspicuous in its absence is redistricting reform.
For over a decade that was a central cause for minority Democrats. They complained, with ample evidence, that they were stuck in the minority thanks to the most egregiously gerrymandered district maps in the nation. They clamored for fair maps and a nonpartisan redistricting process.
Pressure was applied through the courts and once liberals took over the state Supreme Court, with the writing on the wall, Republicans caved and allowed new fair maps to be put in place. As a result, Democrats made big gains two years ago and they took back control of everything this time around.
Now that they’re in control hubris may already be setting in. The calculation may be that they’ll keep control for the foreseeable future and thus be able to gerrymander themselves into a semi-permanent majority.
That would be foolish. What the Democrats have right now is just what the models predicted. When fair maps were installed researchers said that they continued to give the GOP a slight edge, especially in the Assembly, simply because of the way Democratic voters clustered in urban areas. The models suggested that it would take a blue wave to win them majorities in both houses. A blue wave happened and they have their majorities.
But they should not conclude that these majorities are enduring. It’s entirely possible, maybe even likely, that Democrats will lose one or both houses in the next few cycles. If it’s both houses that would put the Republicans right back in control of redistricting after the 2030 census.
Maybe Democrats think they have a backstop in a liberal Supreme Court that would strike down gerrymandered maps if they were drawn by Republicans while finding a reason to leave Democratic drawn maps in place. What they need to remember is that the Court won’t be this liberal forever.
So, what the Democrats should do — in their own interests if not in the interests of good government — is move to establish a nonpartisan redistricting process in state law and pass a constitutional amendment that would root that same process more firmly. (It would take the next legislature to pass it again followed by a public referendum.)
Democrats can’t let this blue wave go to their heads. Right now it is simply an overwhelming rejection of Donald Trump, not in any way an endorsement of Democrats, who remain deeply unpopular. Democrats need to remember that waves recede. They can use this brief advantage to lock in, not a rigged advantage for themselves, but a level playing field for the future.
Have a good weekend. I’m heading up to the UP to hunt the Michigan gun deer opener. Looks like we might even have a little snow on the ground.
