This is a day of thanksgiving in more ways than one.
When it was revealed last week that Francesca Hong had Tweeted about her desire to cancel Thanksgiving because it is a “colonizer” holiday, I thought that was the least of the troubles ahead for the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Instead, it may have been the thing that took her down. Early this morning the impossible happened. Hong’s 30-point polling lead over David Crowley evaporated and Crowley eked out the narrowest of victories. Now it will be Crowley to face Republican Tom Tiffany in November.
What happened? Well, first off, you shouldn’t be looking for the answer from a guy who has been writing for weeks that Hong had the nomination locked up. But since nobody else has a clue either, let me offer a theory as valid as anybody else’s.
It was Thanksgiving.
Hong’s comment, being revealed as it was just as late voters were making up their minds — and according to the last Marquette poll, 34% of Democrats were undecided — confirmed their concerns that Hong might be unelectable in the fall. While it’s inconceivable that all of that 34% went to Crowley — and so, there must have been something fundamentally wrong with the polling — there’s no question that a big chunk of it did. In the end, a bare plurality of Democrats were practical. They just wanted to win.
The only person who feels worse about these results than Hong is Tiffany. He was banking on a Hong victory. No doubt the ads had already been cut, filled with images of deflated Macy’s parade balloons and plates piled high with tofu in lieu of turkey.
Now Tiffany’s attacks will be redirected at Crowley. Every bad thing that has ever happened in Milwaukee will be blamed on him. The question will be, “do you want Wisconsin to become Milwaukee?” This is going to be a tough fight, but that question is better than, “do you want Wisconsin to become a commune?”
The upshot of this result is that the fundamentals that are in play for the Democrats this year should be back in control. Whether the nominee was Hong or Crowley the strategy was going to be to link Tiffany to the most unpopular president in recent history — no tall order since Trump has endorsed him and since he has tied himself to Trump since the day he tried to help steal the 2020 election on his behalf. Hong would have invited voters to think about her own extremism. Now it will be easier to get voters to focus on Tiffany’s baggage.
The interesting question for the near term is how united Democrats will be. That would have been the case no matter the result. Moderates, including me, were going to have a hard time accepting Hong. And now I’m sure many of Hong’s deeply devoted supporters will be angry at the establishment, led in stunningly effective fashion by Gov. Tony Evers, for taking away what they had every reason to believe was going to be theirs. Some of the sting of that may be lessened by the fact that they now have a chance to elect Wisconsin’s first black governor.
No matter how things work themselves out in the near term, troubles in the party won’t go away. The Democrats are evenly split between Democratic Socialists (or those who want that degree of change) and those of us who are more moderate in our views and approach. Here again, that was going to be the case no matter the result.
But for me at least, this result will keep me in the party. If the DSA had taken over — as it still well might — I would have been gone, not because they’re more liberal than I am, but because they are fundamentally different. Moderate Democrats do not want to abolish capitalism or checks and balances. But now there’s still a chance that centrist Democrats could regain the upper hand. So, it’s worth hanging around to see what happens next.
And for that I give thanksgiving.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
Polls are fake and people lie to pollsters.
LikeLike
well-written & spot on
LikeLike
Hong’s loss was more resounding than the results indicate. She lost to a candidate who wasn’t even in the race a month ago and despite the fact that many ballots had already been cast for candidates who weren’t on the ballot on Election Day.
Hong almost won by default due to the disarray in the Dem field, but she was hardly the leader of a movement a la Mamdani, AOC or even Wellstone. There also wasn’t an animating grudge against the establishment (Israel) like there is in some other races. Evers and Crowley are not Cuomo and/or Haley Stevens.
LikeLike
In addition to your insights, Hong’s loss was also resounding in that there were undoubtably a large number of Republicans crossing over to vote for her. It would be interesting to know just how many of her votes actually came from democrats. Tiffany clearly wanted Hong on the ballot.
LikeLike
Dave, your Light Blue thesis carried the day. Told you centrists that Crowley was a legitimate long shot.
Get Outlook for iOShttps://aka.ms/o0ukef ________________________________
LikeLike
what IF Hong goes third party, or her supporters go third party? BUT is is a shock that she lost.
LikeLike
She was at the unity breakfast this morning. Her comments last night before she knew she lost were appropriate and dignified. So far she has been a class act.
LikeLiked by 1 person
OK , BUT that whole Thanksgiving thing was pure trash.
LikeLike
The “look we’re not dysfunctional at all, we’re just one big happy family” breakfast.
Cringe Godlewski already clinging to Crowley’s coattails. Crowley got one big thing right – as Milwaukee County Executive he had a real job. Democrats could learn from it and in the future avoid getting behind Lieutenant Governors that have accomplished nothing. I think Evers understood this the whole time.
LikeLike
Based on my observations, I fully expected Francesca Hong to win her primary in a landslide victory, I wasn’t just wrong, I was absurdly wrong! I’ll certainly learn from this experience.
LikeLike
If we’re going to have a middle, we have to have an actual left. The fundamental flaws of capitalism, which are literally leading us collectively over a cliff, must be counterbalanced by an actual left – not a Democratic Party that thinks tiny tweaks are all that’s needed. Calling traditional Ds “the left” has led to an unaccountable and depraved oligarchy.
As someone who agrees that American Thanksgiving is a terrible holiday to celebrate, I still voted Crowley. Sure, Hong certainly lines up better with my personal political views, but US elections have little to do with expressing personal political views. They are pragmatic decisions.
That’s why I think it’s stupid for anyone to vote third party or refuse to back a D candidate because they don’t agree with everything the candidate says. Just like moderates should support liberal (even DSA) D candidates, leftists should support moderate D candidates until we reform our election system.
LikeLike
Dave please include “literally” in your annual words/phrases that drive you (or is it just me?) nuts. Now I am willing to acknowledge my ignorance if there is an actual cliff that people are being led over. Is it at Devil’s Lake?
LikeLike
🙂 I’ll graciously accepts the criticism of the use of the word “literally.” It was used for emphasis, of course, because people are not taking the threat (our current path) seriously.
I don’t care what one calls the replacement, or the specifics of it at this point as long as it’s fundamentally democracy, but we are on a path that leads to extinction, and the ultrarich capitalists are the ones setting us on this path – they run the world and prevent democracy from addressing the problems. We need leaders who are willing to reign in the power of the ultrarich and make a new path.
LikeLike
Heh no worries a lot of the younger generations use it for emphasis but it’s nails on a chalkboard to my old ears.
Your criticisms all have some validity of course but I don’t think it’s as black and white as you do. I’m of the opinion all systems have a rise and fall, even socialism.
As for high tech murder machines we may have seen the first version already courtesy of Fauci et al.
LikeLike
It’s as black and white as most any organizational decision. When the leaders are doing a crappy job, replace them. Our current crop of rich oligarchs who run the world are doing a bad job. That’s Trump’s basic message, but unfortunately he’s just inserting even stupider and more corrupt people into power. We have laws that influence who is rewarded with wealth and power, and our system result in stupid people in charge. If they were at least doing a good job I’d be more sympathetic to them.
As far as bioweapons and Covid: sure, it’s plausible that it’s a bioweapon experiment. If you ran through the list of Congresspeople who would support ending secret bio weapons programs worldwide, I think you’d only have a few very left-leaning names on it. So…
LikeLike
“The fundamental flaws of capitalism, which are literally leading us collectively over a cliff”
Rollie…buddy…please regale us with the successes (other than their “feature not a bug” ubiquitous…um…population control) one might attribute to Communism/Socialism/Collectivism: Cambodia, Vietnam, Cuba, USSR/Russia, N. Korea, China, Ethiopia, Romania, etc.
Be specific, use examples.
Anyone who thinks Hong is abandoning her core beliefs is suffering from severe naïveté.
She specifically, and the DSA generally, are all in and playing the long game; you know…distancing itself from, as the always erudite AOC ingeniously giggles, Woke I.
They’re shredding/deleting what they can, and preparing to vigorously spin/deflect/deny what they can’t.
“As someone who agrees that American Thanksgiving is a terrible holiday to celebrate“
Good thing the Noble Red Man never pillaged/sacked/looted/usurped/murdered/tortured/raped/kidnapped/subjugated/stole/enslaved/wiped out anyone…right…?
LikeLike
The only lesson Maga learned was to cheat more by cross voting more for Hong next time!! Crowley and Dems unite to put a Chris Taylor/Protosaywitz/Evers ass whoop on Maga!!!
LikeLike
I’ll be interested in seeing if the so-called moderate left, who regaled us with Red Scare rhetoric these past several months and threatened to sit on their hands instead of plugging their noses in November if Hong got the nomination, will be similarly motivated to direct their sharp commentary toward avowed Trump sycophant Tom Tiffany.
LikeLike
There was nothing wrong with the polls. By simply splitting voters’ preferences into 2 categories, Hong vs. not-Hong, the polls become completely understandable. Hong’s opponents were distinguished by the fact that few could distinguish one from another. The Undecideds made up a solid, nearly unvarying majority of the non-Hong vote in every poll. That non-Hong candidates were dropping out (and in) reinforced for voters the fact that falling in love too soon was foolish (except for love-lorn absentee voters who were impulsively casting ballots after their first kiss.)
The only problem was that non-Hong voters were unable to discern who other non-Hong voters were likely to fall for. Immediately after a leading non-Hong candidate (Rodriguez) closed her Tinder account, a most unlikely matchmaker (Gov. Evers) stepped in to pitch Crowley to looking-for-love voters, but they were not immediately smitten. Only 12 days later, when the leading non-Hong candidate (Barnes at 16%) suddenly dropped out, did Undecideds hear the bartender announce “last call” and begin to worry about having to go home alone.
After the last poll was polled (late July), only Crowley had the Guv’s seal of approval as Undecideds belatedly and overwhelmingly determined that he was better looking than his 2 remaining, largely inert opponents.
The last Marquette Law School poll: Hong 38% versus her actual 39.3%. Undecideds (poll 34%) + Barnes (poll 16%) + Crowley (poll 7%) settled at an actual 39.8% for Crowley.
(Note that 8.6% of the final tally was for 3 candidates who had dropped out, the product of early voting and inattention)
LikeLike