The Post Mortem Before the Election

Moderates might take some solace in Abdul El-Sayed’s much narrower than expected victory in this week’s Michigan Senate primary. But I don’t think it provides much hope in heading off Francesca Hong.

For one thing, Michigan moderates could rally around one candidate in Haley Stevens while our primary has been a mess and three moderates still remain. Second, national groups invested millions behind Stevens’ effort because they want Democrats to gain control of the Senate and they fear El-Sayed can’t win in November. The stakes for them aren’t as high for governor of Wisconsin and so there was no national money flowing in to head off Hong. Moreover, while AIPAC won’t like Hong’s stance on the Middle East, as governor she’s no threat. I’ll knock off ten points from my earlier prediction, but I still think Hong breaks 50%.

So, now that the primary is over (accept for the technicality of counting the votes), let’s evaluate what happened to each of the candidates.

Tom Tiffany had the best summer since the one when, as a kid, he milked cows in the morning wearing a warm shirt knitted by his mom while he snuck his first brandy old fashioned in the barn. He had lots of money to introduce himself to voters and he did so effectively. Now he’ll go negative and define Francesca Hong before she can say ,”Thanksgiving is deeply painful for many folx.”

Francesca Hong ran an excellent campaign. Her working class agenda inspired a lot of young, white, college-educated people who believe their college loans should be paid off by the working class. She had something like 7,000 volunteers and she was smart to get out early with social media ad buys. That put her on the map from the very first poll. She’s not my cup of tea and I won’t vote for her either in the primary or the general, but from a political craft perspective my hat’s off to her.

Sara Rodriguez should have been the moderate alternative, but let’s face it, she still would not have bested Hong. She was only at 11% to Hong’s 26% when she dropped out. And, frankly, the campaign finance mess in her campaign was her ultimate responsibility. Her political career is over and it’s too bad because I thought she would have made a good governor. (She would have had a Department of Revenue to do the accounting for her.)

By all accounts, David Crowley is a good guy and his experience running Milwaukee County was the most relevant — to the extent experience in an executive capacity matters at all. Remember that Tommy Thompson never ran anything larger than an Assembly office. But he dropped out. And then he dropped back in. That’s terrible form and it’ll hurt him if he tries again.

Mandela Barnes is probably done in politics. He left a bad taste in a lot of Democratic mouths for coming up short against Ron Johnson. He still might have captured the nomination if Hong hadn’t taken his left flank. I thought the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story that ultimately forced him from the race was a cheap shot and crummy journalism because it was based on an anonymous accusation that did not check out and was over a year old. Still, by that point it was over anyway.

Kelda Roys worked hard and never gave up. She even courted my support, which is an indication of just how far down on the list of has-beens she was willing to go. While her emails claiming that she was rising when she was down by 36 points to Hong became silly, it’s important to stay the course because it gives donors and supporters in future races (and she’ll have some) confidence that you won’t quit. But the big loser in Roys’ campaign was WEAC. The teachers union did a head-scratching early endorsement, which had zero impact on the race. They ended up looking weak.

I never got the theory behind the Joel Brennan campaign. Basically, the argument was that he would be a good governor because he had been secretary of the Department of Administration. Now, I’ve got nothing against DOA secretaries. In fact, some of my best friends are DOA secretaries. But to think voters care or even know what the DOA is, is just not in touch with reality. This is not 1982, people. His only real chance would have come if his brother-in-law had kicked in millions and done so early. Without that, there was just nothing compelling about Brennan.

Missy Hughes never had a chance at the nomination. Pro-business Democrats went out with Al Gore. But I think she would have beaten Tiffany and she probably would have been a good governor. With Hong’s nomination Democrats have demonstrated that those are not their criteria.

Overall, many moderates are lamenting what they think is a lost opportunity. They think that if there had been a better crop of moderate candidates or if everyone had gotten behind just one or if they had organized better or if they had recognized the threat from Hong early on and gone after her, that would have made a difference.

I don’t think so. I fear that the socialist vibe is overwhelming my party just as MAGA took over the GOP a decade ago. In the end, it was meant to be — just like taxes and death.

And on a related matter… I’ve been pummeled the last few days with mailers for Hong put out by a shadowy group called Middle Class Priorities. The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign says that they’re spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on behalf of Hong, more than Hong has in her own coffers. But nobody knows who they are or where all that money is coming from. Is it Tiffany’s camp trying to seal the deal for their most coveted opponent or is it some group backing Hong, and if it’s the latter why won’t they just say who they are?