Still Anybody’s Race

Since I last wrote about the Wisconsin governor’s race a whole lot of water has rushed under the bridge. Let’s review.

Up until Monday, it appeared as if the race was coming down to Francesa Hong, representing the hard-left wing of the Democratic Party, and Sara Rodriguez, representing the moderates. Hong has been surprisingly strong from the start and Rodriguez was slowly gaining momentum. The two candidates who dropped out, Missy Hughes and David Crowley, both endorsed her.

Then it all came crashing down on Monday with the revelation that Rodriguez had been stabbed in the back by her campaign manager. Rather than having hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank, she discovered that she had a lot less because her manager had been double counting contributions and understating expenses. Rodriguez was not specific about just how bad the numbers were for her, but this morning we know.

According to the latest filings, submitted by the midnight deadline, the Democratic candidates for governor raised the following amounts during the first six months of the year: 

• Mandela Barnes: $841,358 with $204,207 cash on hand
• Francesca Hong: $708,884 with $410,563 cash on hand 
• Joel Brennan: $665,627 with $359,583 cash on hand 
• Sara Rodriguez: $561,817 with $34,990 cash on hand
• Kelda Roys: $527,432 with $406,492 cash on hand

So, $35,000 is essentially no money at all. It’s hard to see how Rodriguez can raise enough in the next couple of weeks to get any kind of impactful TV buy before the August 11th primary — and keep in mind that people can start voting well before that.

But all is not lost for Rodriguez. She continued to pick up endorsements even after her announcement, including the Operating Engineers union and former Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, who retains a following. She also may come out well in the next Marquette Law School poll, due out next Wednesday. Those pollsters are out in the field right now — timing that could not be worse for Rodriguez. So, if she does well anyway, that would be a powerful statement about her viability. It’s possible that voters aren’t paying much attention or that they think this is just all inside baseball.

In addition, it looks as if Hong and Mandela Barnes may have enough resources to split the hard-left vote while Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys have enough to split the moderates. But nobody’s got enough bucks to really make a huge impact. All of which means that, if Rodriguez leads the moderates in the next poll, she’s still got a shot.

And, here’s a big wild card: third parties. What the candidates raised themselves might pale in comparison to what a few outside groups might put into “independent expenditures.” Rodriguez has been promised a $2 million independent expenditure by the Democratic lieutenant governors association.

So, Rodriguez took a big blow this week, but it hasn’t knocked her out of the game. Let’s see how things look a week from now when the next poll comes out.