Checking in on Dem Candidates

With Mandela Barnes’ unsurprising announcement that he’s joining the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, that field appears to be pretty well set. The only potential, but not yet announced candidate, out there is former state Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan. I would expect him to get in before Christmas and I’d be surprised if he took a pass on the race, but we’ll see.

So, let’s handicap the horses at this early point in the contest. I’d put them into three categories.

The Front Runners

Barnes and Sara Rodriguez have served as lieutenant governors to Evers. So both can claim they’ve run and won statewide and both can say that they’ve been around the executive offices, though their job has virtually no duties.

In the most recent poll, taken before Barnes officially joined the race, he was at 16% while Rodriguez trailed him at 8%. Nobody else was close. That seems about right to me at this stage. It seems reasonable to assume that both candidates’ numbers will go up as they get better known. Barnes has an already established fundraising network from his run for U.S. Senate in 2022 and Rodriguez has a pledge from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association for $2 million in independent expenditures in the primary. It’s hard to raise money in a primary, so that’s a good chunk of change.

Barnes’ greatest weakness is that fact that he lost to the dreaded Ron Johnson in a race that was the Democrats’ to lose. Rodriguez’ weakness is her long career as a health care executive — an industry that is not very popular these days. But unless those weaknesses can be exploited by their other opponents — something that’s hard to do in a Democratic primary where voters tend to punish candidates who attack their brethren — it’s hard to see this not shaping up as contest between these two.

The Long Shot

Alone in this category I’d place Madison State Sen. Kelda Roys. She’s running an energetic campaign based on her record of supporting progressive causes as a legislator and in her previous jobs. I expect that she’ll appeal to lot of primary voters. Still, she’s likely to have a tough job in breaking into the money advantage enjoyed by Barnes and Rodriguez. She probably can’t do it without some help. Her best bet might be to repeat what Russ Feingold did in 1992. If it becomes a nasty, two-person joust between the frontrunners she could sneak through the smoke at the finish line.

The Head Scratchers

Next comes a longer list of candidates for which — at this early stage — I just can’t see a path to victory. Let’s run through them.

David Crowley. The Milwaukee County Executive and former legislator has a combination of public sector legislative and executive experience combined with a solid reputation. He’d probably make a good governor. But he’s competing with at least one other candidate from Milwaukee — Barnes. If Brennan gets in that’ll make two. I don’t see him besting Barnes as the favored Milwaukee guy and it’s possible that the three of them could so fracture that vote that none can beat Rodriguez.

Missy Hughes. The former commerce secretary under Evers and long-time Organic Valley executive is running as an outsider (something that appeals to Trump Republicans) and a business advocate (something that appeals to traditional Republicans). She’d probably make an excellent general election candidate, but I don’t see her making a case that appeals to liberal party activists who show up in primaries.

Joel Brennan. He’s also from Milwaukee and he’s the consummate insider, having served as DOA secretary and President of the Greater Milwaukee Committee among other jobs. He’s well-respected in Milwaukee but unknown in the rest of the state and being a mover and shaker from the big city won’t help him anywhere. Maybe he could win a general (maybe not), but I can’t see how he gets the nomination.

Francesca Hong. She represents what is perhaps the most hard-left district in the Assembly on the East Side of Madison and she represents it well. A self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist can win in New York City. This isn’t New York City. To make the hill steeper for her, Barnes will capture a lot of that energy. She has to give up her seat to run for governor, so she may decide to drop out and claim another term in the Assembly. She’d easily win reelection.

There are some other minor candidates who won’t figure in the outcome, but that’s the way I see it right now. Of course, with the primary still some nine months away, a lot will happen and I’ll bet that some of these candidates will drop out before the filing deadline.