With more information and a little time for reflection, here are some more thoughts about what Tuesday’s big win for Democrats — in that “nonpartisan” election —might mean.
Was Schumer right? I was with those Democrats who were frustrated with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s decision not to fight Trump on his bill to keep the government running. I knew it would be risky, but I just thought that at some point you’ve got to stand and fight and you don’t get more leverage than this. But if Schumer had done what I wanted it’s entirely possible that a lengthy shut down would have ensued and Democrats would have — unfairly — gotten the blame. Then this election might have been a referendum on Democrats, instead of on Trump/Musk.
Will the Democrats beat Van Orden? When I look at the map from Tuesday’s results one thing really jumps out: Democrats flipped a lot of counties in the First and Third Congressional Districts. Those seats in the Southeast and Southwest parts of the state are held by Republicans Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden, but are only marginally red. In the First, two counties — Racine and Kenosha — went from supporting Trump to voting for Crawford. In the Third, no less than five counties flipped in the same direction. Steil has cultivated a more moderate image, so he may still be tough to beat. But Van Orden is full MAGA. Apparently, Democrat Rebecca Cooke is going to run for a third time against Van Orden. She only lost by a few points last year. She may have to get through a primary, but if she does you have to like her chances in 2026.
Is WOW now WW? The Milwaukee suburban ring of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties has been the big red wall for Republicans. But it may now be missing a big piece. Ozaukee went for Trump by 10 points in November, which may seem like a lot, but it was actually a margin about two-thirds smaller than the other two counties. On Tuesday, Brad Schimel barely hung on in Ozaukee, winning by only three points.
Will the GOP come roaring back? You can make a case that Trump voters couldn’t get motivated to vote in a state supreme court race that seemed distant from his core agenda. That won’t be the case in the midterms when control of Congress — at least the House — will be up for grabs. Still, it holds true that the party out of power does well in the off year election. And Trump voters have never shown that they’ll show up in an election where Trump himself is not on the ballot.
It has been a good week for Democrats — if an awful week for the world economy thanks to the chaos Trump has inflicted on it with his tariff mania. And the more I look into it, the better it looks for Team Blue.
Have a good weekend. It’s the Phelps Maple Syrup Festival on Saturday. I’ll be there for my pancakes and sausages.
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Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
“tariff mania”
For a more thoughtful perspective see:
https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865
You may not agree with everything she says but I think she’s spot on with the tightrope analogy. The whole thing is a tough sell with Americans short time preferences.
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Not to put a damper on Cooke’s chances against Van Orden next year, I do think she has an outside shot – but only three of those five blue counties in SW Wisconsin that Crawford flipped are actually in the 3rd District. Sauk is (almost entirely) within Mark Pocan’s 2nd District, while Columbia is in Glenn Grothman’s 6th. Unfortunately I think she’ll still face an uphill battle.
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