An Answer in Two Years

“Which one is the aberration, Biden or Trump?” said Sen. Chris Coons, a Democrat from Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware. “Has the United States permanently moved in a populist and right-wing direction, and Biden was just a temporary interruption?”

Coons isn’t sure yet.

“I think it is an open question,” he said.

Sen. Chris Coons

It is an open question, but the window for an answer is closing. The trouble is that Trump is certainly not an aberration on the world stage. His brand of corrupt, blood and soil, hard-right populism is on the rise pretty much everywhere. It’s only a question of how long these new Dark Ages will last. I think for the United States, we’ll get a pretty good answer in less than two years.

It’s all about the mid-terms in November 2026. The Democrats should come roaring back then. The party in the White House almost always suffers losses in the off year elections and the Democrats only need to pick up a couple of seats to take back the House. Similarly, the Republicans have to defend more Senate seats than the Dems, the opposite of the situation in 2024. So, it’s not too optimistic to say that Democrats could find themselves back in control of at least one, if not both, houses of Congress.

But that’s what you’d expect in the normal cycle. Nothing’s normal. If that doesn’t happen, if Republicans maintain total control of Congress, then I’d say the question has been decided. We would then live in a quasi-democracy. What that looks like exactly would still take some time to play out. Would it mean that elections would be routinely rigged and stolen by Republicans? Would it mean that criticisms of Trump would be defined as threats to national security and shut down or punished? Would it mean that oligarchs would be the shadow government, bending the rules to their benefit while crushing competitors?

And if the Democrats do come back in 2026 that won’t answer the question definitively on the side of liberal democracy. It would only mean that freedom still has some life, still has a foothold.

There’s no question that the trend, both here and in much of the world, is in favor of hard-right populism. It’s not quite all over for liberal democracy. But it’s not looking good. We’ll know in a couple of years.

Published by dave cieslewicz

Madison/Upper Peninsula based writer. Mayor of Madison, WI from 2003 to 2011.

4 thoughts on “An Answer in Two Years

  1. I’m amazed you’re still blind to the atrocities of the Biden administration.

    You might want to take a look at all the good things that are happening in Argentina.

    And I’m not saying that populism is the ultimate answer. One of the great things about our country is the consistent switching back and forth.

    The current move is away from Authoritarianism. Republicans and Democrats both have been all in on that. If you think Republicans wanted Trump you are sadly mistaken. They would have preferred Nikki and the status quo.

    Trump is already ending wars. Next up Russia/Ukraine and then onto the biggest challenge the administration will face – the debt (over 36 trillion as of this morning).

    I will say you picked a good time to start running again. You’re going to need it.

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  2. So what if these dark ages are kick-started by Trump forcing truces in Palestine and Ukraine?  What if DEI is eliminated and competence returns as the critical criterion?   What if the American economy continues to lead the world?  What if mainstream media continues to be replaced by independent journalists and podcasters? Would that mean we are in a new enlightenment?

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    1. ”…and competence returns as the critical criterion”

      When was this past time when competence was the critical criterion? I must have missed that day in history class.

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  3. If people in the US want a democracy, we need to work to keep it. There’s that saying: “Democracy is not a spectator sport.” I do find it a better use of my time to focus on local issues.

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