Some Election Certainty

I don’t have a clue who will win the presidency.

And there’s no reason to think the answer will become clearer in the next three weeks. This has been a race that has been a dead heat since the start and nothing either candidate says, no world or national event, changes the numbers very much. Predicting the outcome is a fools errand. (Readers who ask what’s stopping me in that case, can just go elsewhere.)

But I think we can be pretty certain what the parameters are for the election as a whole — what the best case scenarios look like for each party in Wisconsin and nationally. Here’s what I think those look like.

What does a good night look like for the Democrats?

Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin and the election. It’s hard to imagine a scenario (though it’s possible) where Harris loses here but wins the electoral college.

Tammy Baldwin retains her Senate seat. Again, it’s hard to see how Harris wins the state but Baldwin loses it. In fact, I’d expect Baldwin to run a point or more ahead of Harris.

The Dems lose the two competitive House seats, now held by Republicans, in southwest and southeast Wisconsin. The Cook Political Report rates the First District (southeast — think Kenosha) as likely Republican and the Third District (southwest — think La Crosse) as leaning Republican. So, I’d expect Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden to keep their seats even on a good Democratic night.

Nonetheless, Democrats flip the House, but lose the Senate. Democrats need to pick up five seats to gain control of the House and there are 26 seats that the Cook Political Report rates as toss ups. So, that’s within reach. Democratic enthusiasm for Harris might just be enough to pull a few more House seats across the line.

On the other hand, it’s looking unlikely that they can hold onto the Senate. They will lose West Virginia for sure. Joe Manchin was the only Democrat who could win that seat and he retired. And it now looks like Jon Tester is likely to go down in Montana. That would put the Republicans back in the majority unless the Dems can pull off a win over Ted Cruz in Texas. Cook rates that as leaning GOP. There’s also an outside chance that independent Dan Osborne wins in Nebraska. But neither Texas nor Nebraska seem likely to go blue this year.

Wisconsin Dems pick up a dozen seats in the Assembly, going from 35 to 47. That’s still three votes short of a majority, but complicated higher math suggests that three is closer than the current 15. It puts them in striking distance to take back control in two years. This is thanks mostly to fair maps adopted earlier this year but also to some good work by the party. They are contesting all but two seats and they’ve far out fundraised the other guys.

Democrats pick up four seats in the State Senate, leaving the GOP with an 18-15 advantage, down from their current 22-11 majority. Democrats have a good shot at winning seats west of Madison, in the Fox Valley west of Lake Winnebago, around Green Bay and in the north Milwaukee suburbs.

What does a good night look like for Republicans?

Trump wins both Wisconsin and the election.

Eric Hovde defeats Baldwin. While the latest Marquette poll (normally the gold standard for Wisconsin polling) has Baldwin out in front by seven points, Cook has moved this race into the toss up category. I can’t explain the discrepancy, but apparently even Baldwin’s internal polling has her in the danger zone.

They retain the House majority and pick up the Senate. As noted above, it’s looking increasingly likely that the GOP will take back the Senate and Democrats would have to win 16 of 26 House seats that Cook rates as toss ups in order to take the majority there. In the Senate the Republicans could have as much as a 54-46 majority if Tester, Baldwin, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and an open seat held by a Democrat in Michigan all go down.

They keep the two competitive Wisconsin House seats, something I see as likely even on a good night for Democrats.

Democrats come up with fewer than 47 seats in the Assembly and fewer than 15 seats in the State Senate. Fair redistricting guarantees that the GOP will lose seats. It’s just a question of how many.

The upshot is that a great night for Republicans is better than a great night for Democrats. It’s realistic to think that Republicans could win the presidency, both houses of Congress and Baldwin’s seat while keeping Democratic gains in the Legislature to a minimum, preserving their majority in both houses.

On the other hand, even if Harris and Baldwin win, it’s not likely the Democrats can keep the Senate and they don’t have a better than 50% shot at winning back the House. They’re likely to lose both competitive Wisconsin House districts even on a good night. There’s no realistic scenario where they take back the State Senate and it would be quite a reach for them to win control of the Assembly this time, though it’s possible in 2026.

So, while nobody can predict who will win the presidency, we can be fairly certain of the parameters for each party.

But if Harris and Baldwin win, at least for a couple of weeks thereafter, nothing else will matter for Democrats. It’s true that they’ll just be holding onto what they already have, but they will have (probably) ended the political career of Donald Trump once and for all. And even if everything else goes awry, that would be worth celebrating.