October Surprises

As we head into the final month before the election — and while early voting has already started in some states — the leaves are turning brown for the Democrats.

You always worry about an October surprise. But Donald Trump is immune from this sort of thing. Here’s a guy who was found liable for sexual assault. No impact. Here’s a guy who was found liable for cheating his business partners. No impact. Here’s a guy who was found guilty of criminal charges regarding his cover up of hush money payments to a porn star. No impact. Here’s a guy who made up a crazy story about immigrants eating family pets. No impact. Here’s a guy whose running mate talks about “childless cat ladies.” No impact on either of them. Here’s a guy who uses language more than just reminiscent of Adolf Hitler, referring to migrants as “poisoning the blood” of America. No impact.

And that’s only the most recent stuff. I could go on.. and on.. and on. Calling John McCain a loser when Trump himself faked bone spurs to get out of the draft. Bragging that he could grab women by their genitals and get away with it. Leaning on officials in Georgia to “find” enough votes to flip the state to him. Inspiring a violent attack on the Capitol aimed at overturning a free and fair election.

And, yet, none of it matters. His numbers don’t move. He has the support of just under half of Americans and nothing he does or says will change that. So, what on earth could be a surprise in October, or any month of the year, for Donald Trump?

Not so for Kamala Harris. She’s still subject to the rules of political gravity. She went up and now she’s coming down. Heading into October the polling points she picked up in the last three months since Joe Biden dropped out have pretty much vanished. She is almost back to where Biden was — trailing in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and just barely ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. It’s a true dead heat in Pennsylvania. All of those numbers, with the exception of Arizona where Trump now enjoys a five point lead, are still within the margin of error. But the trend is running against her.

And now October has kicked off with some unpleasant surprises. The first is Hurricane Helene. The storm has wrought incredible damage throughout the Southeast. And, almost on cue, FEMA has been slow to respond. Maybe the criticism is justified and maybe it’s unfair, but it’s a no-win situation for the Biden administration, of which Harris is a part. This could cost her not just North Carolina and Georgia, but the whole election, as part of her argument turns on her competence versus Trump’s chaos.

And then there’s the longshoremen’s strike. If it goes on for any length of time at all it might cripple the economy and spike inflation at a time when inflation, as a campaign issue, has not subsided much even as actual inflation numbers are coming into line. Even more than Helene, this could be a true disaster for Harris and congressional Democrats. If the strike doesn’t end soon it could turn the election into a rout with Democrats losing the White House, both houses of Congress and even state legislative seats.

It’s not paranoid to think that the longshoremen have calculated this. I would imagine much of their membership likes Trump, even though his tariffs could not be good for their business. And, of course, the timing gives them huge leverage. They’re asking for an outrageous 32% wage increase and they want to stop the inevitable increase in automation that will replace some of their jobs. They may see this as their very best shot at getting all they want.

I was already starting to worry as polling, both head-to-head and on the broader political environment, was souring for Democrats. Now come the unwelcome surprises.