From the moment Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race I started to feel better about the Democrats’ chances. That has been an unbroken melody. Until just about now.
First, let’s review the chain of happy events. Biden finally succumbed to mounting pressure orchestrated by the real hero in all of this, Nancy Pelosi. Then the party establishment quickly coalesced behind Kamala Harris. I thought that was a mistake at the time, but I’ve been proven wrong. Harris spent the next few weeks recasting herself as a cheerful moderate. She selected another cheerful moderate, Tim Walz, as her running mate. I thought she should have picked Josh Shapiro, but Walz has been fine. Then the party convention came off without a hitch. And during all this Harris has been pretty successful in playing to her strengths — rallies and the one debate with Trump where she excelled — while avoiding a lot of hard questions in in-depth interviews. (Yeah, I don’t care. I just want to beat Trump.)
And the result was improvement in the polls. In a deeply divided country where the electorate is so locked in you wouldn’t expect Harris to jump out into a commanding lead. But she did well. She turned Biden’s small deficits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania into small leads and she put Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia back in play. Money and volunteers have been pouring in all over the country.
But in the last week or so I’ve been forced to sober up. Two dark clouds have darkened my mood.
The first is a new Times/Siena poll that finds Harris pretty much back to where Biden had been in the four southern and western states (I refuse to say “Sun Belt” until the press stops saying “Rust Belt”). Trump leads again in all those states, still within the margin of error in most, but the swing has been startling. In Arizona he went from five points down to five points up.
And that has happened for no apparent reason. In fact, I would have expected Harris to get a bump from her convention or from the debate, but she didn’t. Instead, Trump got a bump at a time when he’s been widely mocked for his ludicrous assertion that Haitian refugees are eating dogs and cats in Ohio. Could it be that he’s been successful in using that outrageousness to put immigration back at the center of the election? Could that explain why Harris is hitting so hard again on abortion — hoping to supplant immigration as the issue?
And this leads me to my second piece of bad news. Gallup reports that all of their historic indicators of presidential campaign success point to the Republicans. Here’s their chart:
The one that really gets me is the first indicator. The party that talks about childless cat ladies, the party that deals in nutty and racist conspiracy theories about Black people eating family pets, the party that talks about using the justice system to persecute its political opponents, the party that openly courts dictators… that party has a three point lead over the Democrats in party identification and is considered the better party to handle most important problems.
I strive mightily to understand, and to not dismiss or condescend to, Trump voters. But sometimes I just throw up my hands. This is one of those times.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
Morning, Dave. I am puzzled at your fealty to poll results. Especially now. A visit to the wayback: Mid-October, 2016: “In the state’s U.S. Senate election, Democrat Russ Feingold holds a sizable 52% to 44% lead over incumbent Ron Johnson, with 2% supporting Libertarian Phil Anderson. This is down from Feingold’s 54% to 41% advantage in August. Six years ago, Johnson unseated then-incumbent Feingold by a 5 point margin in that year’s Republican wave. “The race has narrowed but, Feingold remains well placed to return to the Senate barring any major shakeup in this race,” said Murray.
I worked the Feingold election night “victory” party. I didn’t believe much in polls before then and and not at all after.
Cheers! G
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Good point. Hope you’re right.
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Dave wrote, “And that has happened for no apparent reason. In fact, I would have expected Harris to get a bump from her convention or from the debate, but she didn’t. “
Something that I think you’re not considering is that, like her competitor Donald Trump, Harris is having a hard time being presenting herself as a untrustworthy candidate. The major attempts to rebrand Harris by the political left after she was anointed the Democratic Party Presidential candidate has worked in the short term but I think the honeymoon is over. I think there is sincere distrust in Harris from moderate liberals, it has been shown that Harris is a political chameleon and might very well be mouthing moderate words to get elected and will dump the facade of moderation after being elected and govern as an extreme progressive. I think you’re seeing that concern in the polls and I think that concern is valid.
Personally, I think this election is a lose-lose for the American people because both Presidential candidates are terrible! These two are the best candidates that the two major parties can come up with? It’s very sad.
Based on observed cultural, societal and political patterns in the 21st century, I see the 2024 election as being a societal and cultural disaster for the United States of America. No matter who is elected, the reactions are going to be bad, and they’re likely to be very bad.
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Clearly the intent of this sentence “Harris is having a hard time being presenting herself as a untrustworthy candidate” was “Harris is having a hard time presenting herself as a trustworthy candidate.”
I really should have proofread better.
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You’re paying too much attention to one poll. Try not to hang your expectations on one set of numbers, keep an eye on trends and averages. Polls are like the weather: wait 30 minutes and it changes.
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“…the party that talks about using the justice system to persecute its political opponents…“
As opposed to the party that has flagrantly done just that?
Extreme lack of self-awareness?
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When did the Democrats do that? Trump has been charged — and found guilty in some cases — for crimes he actually committed. These were not political show trials and the Biden administration had nothing to do with any of them. Do you really think that Trump should be exempt from prosecution for breaking laws that average Americans would be prosecuted for?
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“These were not political show trials…“
Seriously?
Do hyper-partisan 90% democrat big city DAs run on platforms promising to “get” private citizens, and then change and pervert the law to charge misdemeanor disputed bookkeeping offenses (similar to those done previously by prominent democrat candidates) as felonies?
Do democrat prosecutors comb through private citizens’ real estate loans, and step in to dispute agreed-upon property valuations and charge crimes, when no one has claimed injury and both lender and borrower were satisfied with the terms and repayment of the loans?
Was it not democrats who tried to get Trump kicked off ballots (as an “insurrectionist”) in several states (rejected 9-0 by SCOTUS)? Was it a Republican administration that decided to prosecute one Republican ex-president for retaining documents, but decline to do so against a former democrat senator who never had the authority to possess or retain such records?
Etc., etc….
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William, you can’t be serious. You can’t honestly believe that Donald Trump does not cheat at business and abuse women. The evidence is clear that he tried to steal the last election — he’s caught on tape doing it in Georgia. As to his felony convictions I actually agree that those charges related to his Stormy Daniels payoff were relatively penny ante compared to his other crimes. But regardless of that, the guy paid off a porn star and then tried to cover it up — not exactly the behavior I want in a president. And as for selective prosecution, do you really think that Hunter Biden wouldn’t have been able to negotiate a plea deal if he weren’t Biden’s son?
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“Was it not democrats who tried to get Trump kicked off ballots”. Um… what?
First of all, Democratic activists are not the same thing as courts. Second of all, Trump is an insurrectionist. Third of all, are you seriously claiming SCOTUS as a paragon of virtue? Clarence Thomas is guilty of virtually the exact same thing Democratic New York City mayor Eric Adams was just charged with last week (by a liberal justice department mind you).
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