The Five Families

In the greatest movie ever made, “The Godfather, Part 1,” the Five Families refers to the five major crime families in New York in the mid twentieth century. Similarly, it seems to me that, in very rough terms, we can break down the current American electorate into five groups. Here’s the way I’d line them up from left to right.

NPR Liberals. They make up less than 10% of voters and maybe about 20% of Democrats. But they define the party in the public mind because they are active on social media, they contribute money and volunteer in campaigns and they populate liberal think tanks, Congressional offices and media outlets. If you want to get a sense of who they are just tune into any half hour of National Public Radio news programming. When NPR editor Uri Berliner wrote his excellent essay earlier this year claiming that his employer represented the “distilled world view of a very small segment of the U.S. population,” these are the people he was talking about. They live mostly in major metros and college towns and are college educated and relatively affluent. Condescending, if not hostile, to anyone who disagrees with them and obsessed with issues of race and gender, when Trump talks about “owning the libs” he means these people. Some voters show up not so much to vote for Trump as to vote against these folks. Can you blame them?

Moderate Democrats. About a third of voters and a solid majority of Democrats, these people didn’t lurch left after Donald Trump’s election in 2016 or the killing of George Floyd in 2020. Their views are much closer to Bill Clinton 1996 than they are to Elizabeth Warren. They are less obsessed with race and gender, though they are strongly against discrimination. They believe in equality but not equity. Their top issues are the economy, jobs, taxes, housing, taking care of kids and aging parents — the nuts and bolts of middle class life. They’re pro-choice but support restrictions after viability. They worry about climate change, but they’re too busy with more immediate concerns to obsess over it. These are my people. I started YSDA for them.

Never Trump Republicans. Also known as traditional Republicans. Also known as politically homeless, they sleep (figuratively) in cardboard boxes in parks and along railroad tracks. Like NPR Liberals they make up around 20% of their party and maybe 10% of all voters. Their candidate this time was Nikki Haley. They despise Trump, but they’re not sure they can bring themselves to vote for Kamala Harris. They may not vote for president at all, but they’ll support down ticket Republicans. They wait for the second coming of Ronald Reagan. They live on the belief that when Trump is gone their party will eschew nutty conspiracy theories and revert to a free-market, free-trade, internationalist party. Good luck with that.

Reluctant Trump Republicans. About 25% of all voters and around half of Republicans, these people vote for Trump because, well, he’s the Republican candidate. They’ve convinced themselves that, as awful a human being as he is, his policies will be better than those of any Democrat. They find Trump embarrassing and they wish he’d just shut the heck up, but they’ve made their peace with their devil.

Love Trump Republicans. Maybe a third of Republicans and a fifth of all voters, these people are true Trump believers. They really believe that America was made for white Christians. The most liberal among them would allow others to be guests in their country while the most paranoid would banish anyone who doesn’t look or believe like them. This is Hillary Clinton’s basket of deplorables. She was wrong about Trump voters writ large, but she was right about this group.

It’s the three middle groups that we care most about here at YSDA. I figure they make up about 70% of all voters, but they tend to get ignored as the activists in each party are the true believers. To her credit, Kamala Harris is very definitely reaching out to these groups. In response, Trump may just have started to do that as well, though he lacks the discipline and temperament to do it effectively. This is another reason I like Harris in November.

Now, if you don’t believe me, how can I convince you? Maybe I can make you an offer you can’t refuse.