This week it’s the Democrats’ turn in the spotlight. They’ve got a chance to get the traditional bump that the Republicans didn’t get from their confab in Milwaukee last month.
Now to be sure, no matter how well they do I don’t think it will be a big jump in the polls simply because there’s less head room than ever. People are so locked in that there just isn’t much room to change minds. But if Kamala Harris were to move her current four point lead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania up to, say, six points that would be a big deal because it would push it beyond the standard margin of error. It would still be hard to sustain into the fall, but we’d take it.
To achieve that, here’s what I think they have to do:
Be optimistic. The Harris/Walz rallies have taken on this Obama-like tone of hope and the Hubert Humphrey (anybody remember HHH?) vibe of the happy warrior. It contrasts nicely with Trump’s “American carnage” narrative. They have to be careful to acknowledge the concerns voters have about the economy, crime and immigration, but I think a lot of people are tired of Trump’s darkness and are ready for some light and even maybe some levity.
Keep the left reined in. The last thing they want to do is feed the Republican argument that Harris and Walz are way too liberal. Harris got off to a good start last week when she announced an economic plan which emphasizes an increased child tax credit and an effort to lower the cost of housing. I’d also expect to hear a lot about reproductive rights. Kids, housing and choice are all popular. What they don’t want to do is get caught up in Gaza or talk about the Green New Deal or Medicare for All. They’ll probably do a good job of keeping things on message inside the convention hall, but they’ll have less control over what happens on the streets. I don’t think it will be anything at all like Chicago ’68, but if we see prime time network coverage from outside the convention hall that can’t be good.
Emphasize commonality, not identity. This is almost impossible for this party to do, but I thought I’d toss it in anyway just because a guy can dream. One of the greatest weaknesses of the Democratic Party is its tendency to see everything in terms of identity groups. So there’s a message and an agenda for women, for Black people, for Hispanics, for Native Americans, for the LGBTQ community, for labor, etc. My fear is that with Tim Walz on the ticket, they will now try to pitch a message to men, a demographic box they used to think they checked when they talked about unions. But that whole parsing of the electorate is what they need to lose. Everybody worries about the cost of housing and food. Everybody is concerned about crime. Everybody wants a better future for their kids. Try to stick with what unites us instead of harping on group identity which always feels like a zero sum game where we’ll advance one group at the expense of another.
Talk values, not details. Another problem the Democrats have is an obsession with plans and details. Nobody except opposition researchers reads white papers and details just get you into trouble. Your opponents dig out something mildly troublesome in the footnotes and turn it into “communism!” or some such thing. So don’t get into the weeds on a jobs plan, but instead talk about rewarding hard work. Don’t talk specifics on housing policy, but extol the right of every hard-working American family to own a nice home in a safe neighborhood. And, for the love of God, just be against crime and do not talk about bail reform! Harris has again gotten off to a good start by providing few details in her economic plan.
Finally, pitch everything to the middle. You don’t have to fire up the base. They hate Trump and now they love Harris. You can’t possibly reach the true believer Trump supporters or the dyed-in-the-wool Republicans who will always believe that even Trump is better than any Democrat. So, it’s important not to let the hard-left scare off the remaining relatively small, but all important, group of persuadable voters. And then, after no harm has been done, try to seal the deal with a party and a ticket that comes off as forward-looking, optimistic, reasonable and confident.
Do all these things and I’ll guarantee you two points or your money back. That’s right. I’ll refund the party every dime of what they paid for this advice.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
If the best that centrist Dems can offer are platitudes – don’t define your stance, talk nice – the center will not hold.
LikeLiked by 1 person
In a sense that’s what centrism is. The further out from the center one is the more strongly one has to believe it and sell the ideas. Centrism is a willingness to compromise and find a middle path, which is typically a path that nobody is very excited about. It’s more about being reasonable, responsible, flexible, and respectful. Centrists have to be willing to compromise, which is kind of the opposite of defining a stance. Maybe what you are calling platitudes could be interpreted as a stance in itself: a stance against hard-stances 😉
LikeLiked by 1 person
That was very well stated, Rollie. Thank you. It’s true that centrism is boring almost by definition. And at a time where politics has become performance art (even more than it had been) our show isn’t going to get high ratings.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thank you Rollie.
If times were more sedate than they are now, a standard centrist position might be sensible. Given the developing tsunami composed of exponentially increasing debt/debt service, wars that we actively support that could go nuclear, aggressive inflation, state suppression of free speech that rivals anytime in our tumultuous history and many, many more, a bland take no stance position cannot hold.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.” Yeats, The Second Coming
LikeLiked by 1 person
to Thom:
Under the concept that we have a binary election system, where a vote for 3rd parties is a throw away, I’ll make an argument that Ds are better trusted to handle each of those issues compared to Rs. (I don’t like the binary system, but it’s where we’re at right now).
Exponentially increasing debt/debt service: This issue will require both defense spending cuts and tax increases. Rs can’t accomplish either, Ds can.
Wars that we actively support that could go nuclear: if you’re talking about Gaza, Trump is advocating a complete Palestinian extermination, which will probably trigger a wider conflict, possibly nuclear. If you’re talking about Ukraine, I suppose the R position of just letting Russia do whatever they want with no western resistance is a strategy that could avoid nuclear war, but at what cost? Ds will try to thread a moderate position on ear and foreign policy.
Aggressive inflation: We just got thru Covid, that was an incredible crisis. Pretty hard to navigate that without any economic consequences no matter which party was in power. Could have gone the high unemployment path or the high inflation path – no good choice. And the inflation was broader than just the US, so I wonder how much our government caused and how much was external forces. But let’s not forget the tariffs that Trump’s administration implemented, nor the ones he’s proposing for a next term. He’s trying to con people that tariffs don’t cause inflation, but that’s hogwash.
State suppression of free speech: Rs are beholden to religious extremist book burners; not really a group I look to for defending free speech. I can honestly say that I can envision a roundup of “communists” if Rs win this election; indeed Project 2025 wants to punish civil servants for their thought/speech. Ds try to keep people from yelling fire in a crowded theater (or, perhaps, defaming families of mass shooting victims by calling them actors). Again, the Covid situation was a remarkable and difficult crisis to navigate. I won’t argue that the D response was flawless, but I will argue that it was trying to do the best they could under unprecedented circumstances.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thank you Rollie. To your points:
Debt: Referring back to the previous chart:
The hockey stick is Bidenomics, ie the Ds. Can you provide evidence the Ds have shown any spending restraint? Not that the Rs are much better, but the Ds come right out and say we’re going to increase taxes and spending.
Wars: Our defense policies are controlled by the neo-cons. It doesn’t matter which party is in place. We’re providing hundreds of billions to Ukraine and Israel. Each has the possibility of going nuclear. We’re also poking China in the eye, opening up a possible third front. If you can provide evidence of D moderation, please go ahead. Since Clinton, the Ds are neo-con driven.
Inflation: Neither party is fiscally responsible, but the Ds out-do the Rs in spending, but this might be quibbling. In relative importance, govt spending vastly outweighs any effect of tariffs. We have to restore our manufacturing base. If tariffs get us there, I would be in support of them.
Free speech/censorship: I will refer to the excellent reportage being done by Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Naomi Wolf and many others that show clear collusion between the Biden administration, NGOs and social media companies to suppress any speech that does not agree with the D narratives on health, big pharma, war dissent and others. Stay tuned. We will be seeing criminalization of speech in the not too distant future. Maybe not with an R administration, though I’m sure they will have things they don’t want people saying, but definitely with a Harris administration. Check out the ‘freedom framing’ being done by the Ds right now.
It looks like RFK Jr is going to bow out, maybe supporting Trump. I have to figure out whether I will support the Libertarian party, or make some other choice. It won’t be for Harris.
No matter who wins, they will be facing the tsunami. No one’s going to emerge without major damage.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You make good points, thank you. I won’t go into a debate on details. You illustrate a reasonable apprehension for voting D. Unfortunately our system makes it so that either Harris or Trump will be president, and we have to weigh the relative dangers of each path. I personally think a Trump presidency will be worse for us than a Harris one, so I’m voting D. Since your mind is already made not to vote D, I won’t bother trying to change it.
LikeLike
We have several months ahead of us. I’m sure we’ll be returning to the topic many times.
LikeLike
not going to watch, or listen, way to much fun stuff to do outside, plus the Brewers are in 1st place with a series against the Cardinals. great weather outside.
LikeLiked by 1 person
That’s sane. I’ll watch so you don’t have to.
LikeLiked by 1 person