Two Weeks, Two Different Worlds

I stand ready to stand corrected.

Note that I am not yet standing corrected, but I’m getting ready to.

The subject is Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. When Democratic leaders rushed to anoint Harris after Joe Biden was forced out, I was depressed. It was like somebody put a nice juicy, medium rare steak in front of me and then said, “no wait, that’s not for you. You ordered the tofu and sprouts.”

The day after Biden made his announcement, eight New York Times columnists (not noted for their conservative views) rated ten potential candidates to replace Biden. Harris finished dead last. I agreed with them. And when you rank anybody lower than J.B. Pritzker that’s saying something.

Harris had underperformed both as a presidential candidate in 2020 and as a Vice President since. Her approval ratings were no better than Biden’s. She was a California politician and as such had needed to move left to stay viable there, which would hurt her in the rest of the country. I dreaded what the Republicans would dredge up about things she might have said as she was working her way up through California politics.

It seemed obvious to me that the better choice was one of the people Harris is now considering for her running mate. My favorite was Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro because she absolutely needs his state. It’s looking as of this writing that he may get the nod for the number two spot.

And, at the same time, for Trump everything was coming up roses. He was on a winning streak. There had been setbacks for the prosecution in his criminal trials, most notably an outrageous Supreme Court ruling that may provide him with immunity from prosecution if he shoots somebody on Fifth Avenue so long as he claims it was an official act. His party had just had a successful convention in Milwaukee (until he messed it up with his awful speech as the very end). J.D. Vance looked like a solid choice who would help him win in Pennsylvania at least and possibly in Michigan and Wisconsin.

And then… and then the tables turned with blinding speed. I underestimated the pent up energy among Democrats. Biden’s stepping aside was like popping the cork on a champagne bottle. Harris’ very not-Bideness was all it took. Money poured in. Volunteers flocked to Democratic organizing outlets. There was palpable relief and even excitement.

And Harris herself performed pretty well. She was energetic, mostly positive and confident. Much more sure-footed than how she had been as the Veep. I suppose that made sense as it’s easier to be yourself than to be the person your boss wants you to be.

And Trump couldn’t help being himself, only more so. He started by squandering a golden opportunity when he turned his convention address into just another rally speech. But for Americans who hadn’t attended a Trump rally (which is to say most of us), it was something of a revelation. He was boastful, mean-spirited and inane. But he was also barely coherent. The very things he was accusing Biden of were apparent in his speech. At times he just wasn’t making any sense at all, free associating in front of a national audience.

Days later J.D. Vance exploded. Or rather the land mines he had left scattered through his past started to go off. He’s made numerous statements insulting childless adults (“cat ladies” in his parlance) and as those came to light he did what Trump does: he doubled down. What he doesn’t understand is that he’s not Trump. Only Trump can do what Trump does — thank God. So, when Vance doubled down, he just came off as doubly mean. It may have been the most disastrous roll out of a vice presidential pick since Tom Eagleton.

And now, seeming to take his lead from his second, Trump went to a conference of Black journalists and told them that Kamala Harris wasn’t Black, all obvious evidence to the contrary.

So, let us summarize. Up until around 9:30 PM CDT on Thursday, July 18th everything was going Trump’s way. Then he rose to speak and since then everything has gone to hell for him. He’s shot himself full of holes with self-inflicted wounds while Harris has over performed.

And on that last point I am preparing to stand up and be corrected. Yet, I remain seated for now. It is official YSDA policy to ignore polls until after Labor Day, so I won’t even mention the fact that Harris evaporated Trump’s lead in all the swing states over night. Both Trump and Harris had a chance to reintroduce themselves to the public. Trump could have been a changed man after he was nearly killed. Harris has just emerged from Biden’s shadow. Trump botched his chance while Harris is making the most of it.

If a lot has happened in the last two weeks, imagine what can happen over the next four. The excitement around Harris will surely erode, at least some. The divisions in the Democratic Party over the Middle East and between moderates (most of us) and the hard-left could flare up at the party’s convention. The Trump ads bashing Harris on immigration could start to hit home. The fundamentals of this election may not have changed. People who would have voted against Trump anyway now have reason to also vote for Harris, but they don’t get a second vote. J.D. Vance might stop talking about the virtues of fertility. And Trump might start showing some discipline… ok, so no, that’s not going to happen.

I don’t yet stand corrected. But I’m thinking about getting up.