Let Us Chill

A lot has happened this month.

On June 27th Joe Biden cratered his campaign at a debate he himself had demanded to display his superiority to Donald Trump. Then somebody tried to kill Trump. Then the Republicans had an unusually united and more or less disciplined convention topped off by a rambling and typically mean-spirited speech by their nominee. And on Sunday, only (though it seemed like an eternity) three weeks after his debate debacle, Biden surrendered to reality only to quickly start the avalanche that will lead to the nomination of Kamala Harris.

Whew.

So, here’s the thing. Don’t trust any poll you see for another few weeks. In fact, it might be a good idea to ignore the polls until September when we’re clear of the Democratic convention. Things are just too volatile right now.

In particular the public needs to learn more about Harris before any polling numbers on her are meaningful. She has had low approval numbers mirroring Biden’s, but she also gets a chance to reintroduce herself to voters. In truth, they probably don’t know much about her and her numbers to date may simply reflect the public’s view of the Biden administration. She also gets a boost just for looking and sounding like she’s not fresh out of an ICU.

But while Harris races to define herself, Trump and the Republicans won’t be far behind. Their goal will be to define her before she has the chance to create a new first impression. Some of that will be silly, like the goofy mockery of her laugh. Who cares? But a sober analysis of her public record, as the Wall Street Journal laid out the other day, should be concerning to Democrats. She can be fairly criticized as a California liberal. This is not a good thing.

On the other hand, Harris’ very Not Bidenness is an asset in itself. Democrats are relieved to have a candidate who is youngish and new (kind of). Money that was sitting on the sidelines waiting for Biden to quit has now poured in, she will get an enthusiastic reaction from rally crowds as she travels the country and she’s likely to preside over an upbeat convention in Chicago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her numbers improve over the next few weeks, maybe even substantially.

But then the final grind of the campaign will settle in for September and October. The public already knows who Trump is. He had a chance to redefine himself and grow his base after the attempt on his life, but he couldn’t help himself. He’s the same bitter, resentful liar he’s always been. So, he won’t move his own numbers by himself.

Meanwhile, Harris does have a chance to move hers. I’d expect her to have improving ratings for the next month and a half and then reality will set in. Voters will get a chance to decide which set of policies and values they want with a stark contrast between the two. How that all shakes out might become more clear after Labor Day, but certainly not before.

So, until then take nothing you read or hear too seriously. In fact, go ahead and check out if you want. Play some golf. Read some books, Work on a jigsaw puzzle. Go for a bike ride. Watch the Brewers. Grill some brats.

Have a good time, but remember, there is danger in a summer poll.