There’s a new Marquette Law School poll out. Let’s dive in.
Lack of conviction. The poll provides still more evidence that the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 felony charges last month has made no difference whatsoever, despite what you might have heard on MSNBC. Trump and Biden are almost exactly where they were in the last poll in April, which it to say in a dead heat. Three quarters of those polled paid attention to the trial and 55% said he was guilty, but it just didn’t help Biden or hurt Trump at all. Meanwhile, Trump raised so much money nationally after the conviction that he wiped out what had been a substantial cash lead for Biden. So, on balance, I’d say his conviction was a net positive for Trump.
Do we have to? Voter enthusiasm for Biden-Trump, The Sequel is somewhat less than robust. Only 46% of voters say they are enthusiastic about casting a ballot in November. That’s consistent with national polls that show a majority of voters who wanted a different choice and yet both parties gave the public what they don’t want. And neither even had a meaningly primary season. There’s something wrong with this process.
Hidden enthusiasm? But among those who are excited to vote, 61% are excited to vote for Trump while only 39% are jazzed for Biden. That’s also consistent with past polls, but I think it could be misleading. If you ask Democrats if they’re excited to vote for Biden they won’t be. But I’m pretty confident that they will be plenty motivated to vote against Donald Trump or, if they feel it’s between the lines on the ballot, for abortion rights.
Baldwin keeps her lead. In the category of nothing much changed, Sen. Tammy Baldwin maintained her five point lead over Eric Hovde. This after a barrage of TV ads from both sides since April. They seem to be playing each other off to a stalemate, which is good for Baldwin, as her five point lead is just beyond the margin of error. There’s no indication yet that she’s likely to lose, but a victory is still far from a sure bet.
The presidential debate is tonight. If Trump’s convictions on 34 felonies didn’t move the needle, why is there any reason to think that anything said by either candidate tonight will?
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
Wouldn’t the polls be the same regardless of what republican and what democrat are running for president? We are a deeply divided nation and I think in the end people vote on the matters that mean the most to them, not on the candidate. All the hand wringing doesn’t help at all.
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