Will New Maps Bring Moderation?

Wisconsin finally has fair legislative district maps. This is nothing but a good thing.

But for our purposes, here on the tiny island of moderation in the roiling sea of political passions (don’t try writing like this at home, people), will they lead to moderate policies and a more pacific politics?

Not necessarily.

For one thing, look at Congress where the results have been mixed. Thin margins there have driven one house hard-right and the other toward the middle. The thin margin for Republicans in the House has only empowered the Freedom Caucus, which sees every compromise with Democrats as treason. They’ve already got the head of one Speaker on their clubhouse wall and they hold a sword over the head of another.

On the other hand, the Democrats’ thin margin did empower its moderates in the Senate. Joe Manchin became, for awhile, the most powerful man in Washington and he did drive Senate Democrats to both distraction and the center.

It’s an interesting question: why did slim margins of control drive both parties to the right? I don’t know. Discuss amongst yourselves. My point is that what’s guaranteed under Wisconsin’s new district lines is that the Republican majorities will shrink, but what’s not certain is that this will make the Republicans any more reasonable should they retain their edge.

Then there’s the issue of competitive districts. The new maps create an overall competitive fight for majorities, but not a lot more competitive districts. The maps accomplished rough balance by creating a lot more safe Democratic seats and reducing the number of safe Republican districts, but only about a dozen seats (the Wisconsin State Journal listed 10) are truly up for grabs.

So, one of the things that is driving our politics to the extremes will not be defused. Just as before, for most legislators what will keep them up at night will not be a general election challenge from the other party, but a primary challenge from a candidate more extreme than they are in their own party.

What could be a mitigating factor is the bigger picture. If you’re a member of the Republican caucus and you like your committee chairmanship it’s in your best interest that the handful of your colleagues who win in swing districts win again. Same goes for the Democrats in their fight to regain majorities. So, even very conservative Republicans and very liberal Democrats may find good reasons to trim their sails in order to keep or win majorities.

All of which is to say, I don’t know if the new fair maps will deliver moderation, compromise and comity. But they certainly give us a better shot at all three.