Make or Break For Biden

Today is the New Hampshire primary. Despite what you may have been reading, this is all about the Democrats and Joe Biden.

The Republicans already have their nominee and it’s not Nikki Haley. My guess is that Haley will finish second or win narrowly, drop out to avoid an embarrassment in her home state of South Carolina in a couple of weeks, and endorse Donald Trump. She may do that through clenched teeth, but she’ll figure she’s set up well for 2028 and this is the price she’ll pay for future viability. Even if she does pull off a win it won’t matter. She’ll get crushed later on.

But the Democrats are interesting. Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire, but his presidency hangs in the balance anyway. Biden is trying to have it both ways. His surrogates are running an aggressive and expensive write-in campaign while he and his campaign itself are staying out of the state. That way, if he does poorly, he can say that he wasn’t even on the ballot and he didn’t even try — all evidence to the contrary.

Biden has one credible challenger in Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota. If Phillips does well, calls for Biden to drop out will grow. Sure, that’s hard at this late date, but it could happen. (And, by the way, it’s nuts that the date is late. Bobby Kennedy announced on March 16th back in 1968.) If Biden left the race other candidates would get on ballots in any state they could and run write-ins in other states. The DNC might even change some rules to allow more candidates to compete.

Of course, the question is what does doing well for Phillips mean? That will be decided by the press, pundits and pols, but I’m going to say 40%. I pick that number because back in 1968 Sen. Eugene McCarthy, also of Minnesota, got 42% in New Hampshire against incumbent Pres. Lyndon Johnson, who was also not on the ballot but for whom a write-in campaign was being run. Shortly after McCarthy’s surprisingly strong finish, Bobby Kennedy joined the race and shortly after that LBJ dropped out.

So, what are the chances that Phillips gets 40%? Slim, I’d say. I think most Democrats feel about Joe Biden the way they do about death and taxes. I suppose most feel that Biden’s inevitable and so they will march on grimly.

My own view is that I just want to beat Trump. I like Biden, but I don’t have any particular loyalty to the guy. If he’s the best bet against Trump, then I’m for him. If somebody else has a better shot, well, then I’m for them. I’ve been on the fence on that question for over a year. These days I tend to think we’re better off with somebody else, but it’s a close call.

So, if I lived in New Hampshire I’d vote for Phillips. I’d like to see him do well and at least give us some hope of opening up the race. But, honestly, I think that’s unlikely. Death. Taxes. Joe Biden.