The Iowa Blahs

Nothing to see here. Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses last night going away while spending little time or money in the state. Trump got just over 50% while Ron DeSantis finished with 21% and Nikki Haley got 19%. All pretty much what had been predicted.

If there was any good news to come out of Iowa it’s that Vivek Ramaswamy, who was more objectionable and obnoxious then even Trump, dropped out of the race after getting only about 8% of the vote. I had thought it was impossible to imagine a human being more awful than Trump, but then I saw Ramaswamy in action. Just goes to show that you never know.

But when it comes to the Republican nomination I think we do know. We know it’ll be Trump. There’s just no plausible route to victory for the two remaining challengers. Even if DeSantis drops out and endorses Haley (which he won’t) I don’t see all of his support going over to her. After all, DeSantis was trying to run to the right of Trump. He was trying to pick up voters who liked Trump’s policies but thought he might not be as electable as the younger guy from Florida. If DeSantis goes, a lot of his voters will just move back to Trump. In fact, they probably will now even if he stays in because it’s clear that DeSantis is going nowhere.

Haley thinks she has a chance in New Hampshire where the voters are more moderate. But even if she pulls off an unlikely victory there, she will have been crushed in the Nevada caucuses and then likely lose badly in her home state of South Carolina. It seems likely she drops out soon after New Hampshire and endorses Trump to preserve her viability for 2028.

Let’s look on the bright side. With primary season essentially over, at least on the Republican side, Trump’s remaining victories after New Hampshire won’t make any headlines. Instead, the focus will shift back to his many legal troubles. The questions will intensify over how a major party can nominate a convicted felon, as he likely will be at some point between now and the convention.