Watch for Phillips in New Hampshire

Americans don’t want to see a Biden-Trump rematch this next year. Both men are overwhelmingly unpopular. And yet it seems our system can’t help itself. Like some doomsday machine, it will keep firing long after everyone has given themselves up to utter despair. The vast majority of us want it to stop and yet it marches on to what seems like its inevitable end on Nov. 5. The noose or the firing squad. It’s your choice. 

To be clear, I’m not among that majority that dreads both choices. While I think Joe Biden is too old for this and shouldn’t be running again, I think he’s done a fine job as president. Actually, his accomplishments — from a long-needed infrastructure bill to dramatically stepped up efforts to fight climate change — in a closely divided country and with slim majorities in Congress (when he had them) have been nothing short of remarkable. 

But it doesn’t matter what I think. Most of my fellow Americans, for whatever reason, just do not like Joe Biden. I don’t get it, but my getting it is beside the point. His approval numbers have been in the tank for too long, they have been impervious to whatever successes he has had and they have been trending in the wrong direction. He’s unpopular and that’s not going to change. He could well lose to Trump. 

Donald Trump’s unpopularity is no mystery. He’s an awful human being and he was a terrible president. He faces over 90 criminal indictments for everything from trying to overturn the last election to shady business dealings. And recently he’s been echoing Nazi rhetoric. I am simply at a loss as to how anybody with any moral sense or more than half a brain could vote for this guy. 

So, why can’t our two parties give Americans choices they would like better? Good question. Let me offer a couple of theories. 

In Biden’s case it’s fear. As a Democrat myself and a guy who just wants to stop Trump, I fear that, as unpopular as Joe may be, he’s still our best bet. The leading contenders after Biden are Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom. Both are from California and both would be stuck defending a state that most Americans just don’t like to begin with and with a recent history that is less than stellar. They could easily be painted as out-of-touch left coasters, whether that’s fair or not. 

On the Republican side it’s the gorilla dance. In 2010 the GOP co-opted the tea party movement, thinking they would harness it to their cause. Instead, the tea party became the cause and the Republican establishment now serves it. There’s a portion of Republicans who despise Trump but will vote for him anyway simply because he’s not a Democrat. They got up to dance with the gorilla and now they’ll get to sit down only when he does. 

So, I think those are plausible explanations for how we got here. How do we get out? 

One answer might be Dean Phillips. Phillips is a moderate Democrat representing the Minneapolis suburbs in the House. He’s running a low-profile, but credible campaign in the primaries. If Phillips gets even 40% in the New Hampshire presidential primary in a couple of weeks, that could be the crack that’s needed to send Biden to a well-earned retirement. 

In fact, that’s exactly how Sen. Eugene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson out of the race in 1968. McCarthy actually lost to Johnson in the New Hampshire primary with 42% to Johnson’s 49% and Johnson, like Biden this year, wasn’t even on the ballot. A write-in campaign was run on his behalf just as one is being run for Biden this year. But Johnson’s showing was so surprisingly weak that he decided to bow out. 

(Self-help guru Marianne Williamson is also on the primary ballot, but if she does well the Democratic Party has far bigger problems than even I might have thought.) 

The Democratic National Committee, under Biden’s control, is signaling how fearful they are of a repeat of that 1968 outcome. Last week the DNC wrote a blistering letter to the New Hampshire Democratic Party ordering them to stop doing anything to make their primary look legitimate. The New Hampshire Dems just shrugged. In fact, there’s nothing they can do about it anyway. New Hampshire has a law requiring it to have a primary a week before any other state. Biden wanted South Carolina to go first and they scheduled their primary for Feb. 3 and so New Hampshire scheduled theirs for Jan. 23. 

So, if Phillips takes just, say, 40% in New Hampshire that’s going to set off alarm bells and perhaps invite other Democratic aspirants to start making phone calls.  I like governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, or Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and, who knows, maybe even Phillips could be the guy. After all, a backbencher like Mike Johnson is now Speaker of the House. Just please, for the love of God, don’t give me Harris or Newsom. 

The Republican break with Trump is harder to imagine. While most Democrats are at best lukewarm to Biden, Trump’s base is unshakable and rabid. The more indictments and the crazier his statements the deeper his support becomes. But the Never Trumpers who remain in the party seem to be coalescing behind Nikki Haley, despite her recent confusion about the Civil War. (Hint: it had something to do with slavery.) If, like Phillips, she does just okay in New Hampshire that could provide something of a break in the fever. If that is combined with some criminal convictions for Trump maybe there’s some hope. But I don’t know. This is a long shot. 

So, at this point, I think the best we can hope for is the Dean Phillips juggernaut followed by Biden’s graceful bowing out and followed in turn by a sober and chastened Democratic Party picking somebody moderate who can win in November. If that person could defeat Trump overwhelmingly that might finally put the Trump cancer in remission. It won’t be cured because roughly 70 million people will have voted for him no matter what. That fundamental sickness in the American soul needs to be wrestled with no matter what happens. 

I don’t paint a pretty picture, I know. But that’s the happiest reasonable scenario I can come up with as we enter the year of living dangerously. 

A version of this piece originally appeared in Isthmus.