Last night was a good night for Democrats.
Once again the elections in play turned on abortion. The New York Times reported that the victors included: “Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who criticized his opponent’s defense of the state’s near-total ban; legislative candidates in Virginia who opposed the 15-week abortion ban proposed by the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin; and, above all, the Ohio referendum establishing a right to abortion access. A Pennsylvania Supreme Court candidate who ran on abortion rights, Daniel McCaffery, also won, giving Democrats a 5-2 majority.”
And where abortion wasn’t an issue Democrats lost. For example, the Dems thought they had a chance to win the Mississippi governor’s office with a popular candidate. But that candidate, Brandon Presley, matched the incumbent Republican’s opposition to abortion — and Presley lost. So a guy named Presley lost in Mississippi. No thank you very much.
The Virginia results were also instructive. There, moderate Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin sought to find a middle ground on abortion. He touted a ban after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape and incest. But that didn’t fly. Not only did his party fail to pick up control of both houses of the Legislature, but they lost the house they had.
For me there are two over-riding messages from last night.
The first is that the Democrats, obviously, need to continue to ride the abortion issue, but they also need to use this time to figure out how to reconnect with voters on other things. Abortion won’t last forever as a top issue. The very constitutional amendment fights that prevail for pro-choice forces — like the one in Ohio yesterday and six other states in previous election cycles — will probably work to dampen that as a motivating issue in future elections.
The same holds true here in Wisconsin where our new liberal Supreme Court will almost certainly overturn our own restrictive 1849 abortion ban before next year’s presidential election. According to last week’s New York Times/Siena poll, Wisconsin is the only one of six key states where Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, and only by two points. With abortion off the ballot by then, what might those numbers look like?
The other big takeaway for me was what should be the rise of Andy Beshear. Beshear has now won twice, and comfortably, in a state that went for Donald Trump by 26 points in 2020. All other statewide offices went handily to the red team. And Beshear was first elected four years ago, before Roe was overturned. He may have won this time on abortion, but he won the first time on other things, like fixing the roads and investing in education.
He’s also found a way to accomplish that without offending liberal constituencies. For example, he has vetoed anti-transgender bills and lived to tell the tale. All of which is to say that, if Democrats start seriously looking for alternatives to Biden, Beshear is someone that should be at the top of the conversation.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
A good night, although part of me was hoping that a bad night would convince Biden to throw in the towel. We’re definitely stuck with him now.
Unfortunately, because of how the partisan tribes have evolved in recent years, a strong Dem performance in a non-presidential election isn’t nearly as remarkable as it used to be. Because of their gains among the educated and affluent, the Dems may very well now be the party with the upper hand in low turnout elections. Conversely, because of the gains the GOP has made with less educated and less affluent people, high turnout elections (see: 2020) may no longer spell disaster for them.
That’s my concern. That a strong performance in a low turnout election where white collar voters are overrepresented may mask the problems Biden faces with big segments of the population that he needs to win in a high turnout presidential election.
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