Here’s something you might not expect. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr,’s independent bid for president hurts Donald Trump more than Joe Biden.
That’s the conclusion of a new poll conducted by USA Today. In fact, Kennedy, who gets 13% in the poll, gets two-thirds of his support from voters who would vote for Trump if RFK weren’t in the race. The poll has Biden and Trump tied at 37% each, then comes Kennedy at 13% and Cornel West, who is expected to announce soon, at 4%. The rest are undecided. But take Kennedy out of the mix and Trump is ahead slightly at 41% to 39%. West takes most of his support from Biden. Take both Kennedy and West out of the equation and it’s a dead heat once again at 41% to 41%.
As someone whose chief priority next year is to keep Trump from returning to the White House, this is something of a relief. I wasn’t sure which way Kennedy would cut. Part of me thought that, well, he is a Kennedy, so any votes he would get would come from the Democrats. But he’s also a conspiracy nut. Those are Trump voters. Now it appears that RFK, Jr., finds his support coming mostly from nuts and not Democrats. So, I say, all the way with RFK!
That’s the somewhat surprising good news out of this poll. But, if you share my views on Trump, you’ll want to curb your enthusiasm.
There’s significant enthusiasm gap. On a scale of 1 to 10, Trump voters say they are enthusiastic at an average rating of 7.1 while Biden comes in at just under 6.3. In other words, Trump voters look forward to voting for him like Swifties with concert tickets. Biden’s voters seem to view voting for him the way you look forward to going to the dentist. Something you know is good for you in the long run, but you’d skip it if you didn’t know it was the responsible thing to do.
On the other hand, I think this question masks something important. Biden voters were asked about their enthusiasm for him, but not about their enthusiasm for voting against Trump. I think Biden’s been a fine president and I’m happy to vote for him, but I would vote for Marianne Williamson if she was my only alternative to Trump. Williamson, by the way is at 11% running against Biden in the primary, a surprisingly high number that is another indication of lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for their presumptive nominee.
Anyway, my point is that I don’t think Democrats should be too concerned about the enthusiasm gap because there will be plenty of negative energy to vote against Trump. In fact, this may turn out to be the oddest of elections in that it won’t really be a referendum on the incumbent but a vote that’s all about the challenger. People will show up to vote for or against Trump and Biden’s name will simply mean “Not Trump.”
The poll also shows what’s become of the old Republican Party. What were once mainstream Republicans are fighting for the crumbs off Trump’s table. Ron DeSantis, once at 23% is now down to 12%, just ahead of Nikki Haley at 11%. In other words, it doesn’t matter who wins that withered wing of the party because it’s only about a quarter of it. What might be encouraging though, from my point of view, is that some of those folks will either not vote or vote for Biden when it comes to the general election.
The last thing of note from this poll is that union members make up Trump’s most loyal demographic. A full 58% of union members rank their enthusiasm for Trump at a 10, more than any other group. Union households were once the very heart of the Democratic base. And it’s still Democratic pols who show up on picket lines and at Labor Day picnics. It’s the Democrats who sponsor pro-union and pro-labor legislation. And yet they now are Trump’s most solid constituency.
This is further evidence that, if they are ever to reconnect with their roots, Democrats have to pull back on the cutting edge social issue stances, drop the ten-point plans and focus on middle class values like hard work and personal responsibility.
Don’t expect that to happen any time soon. In the short run, and not by his design, Robert Kennedy may save us from Donald Trump.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
I take it all with a grain of salt.
First off, Biden won’t be the nominee. The man can barely function now and would be Feinstein-like in a 2nd term (not like that would affect his administration but we still want to fool ourselves that he’s running the show).
Democrat nominee will support the forever wars. Trump won’t. That’s not all I need to know but it sure stacks the deck.
Also RFK Jr. just came out in FAVOR of reparations. Is that the first of many running to the left of the Democrats? His independent candidacy may consist largely of punishing the DNC.
Like some Americans seeing the appeal of soccer, I am seeing why national politics is such a great spectator sport.
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I don’t get soccer. I’ve tried to watch it and it just seems like a bunch of aimless running around.
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I wonder how many people take the MSM candidate descriptions at their word, ie ‘conspiracy nut’ as a way to summarily dismiss RFK. Jr?
If it’s a significant number, then RFK Jr and Cornel West, and likely any other non-mainstream candidates will only function as spoilers for the mainstream.
Personally, I hope that more and more people have become fed-up with the MSM descriptions and are willing to consider candidates who have nuanced views of the many issues we face. And that we can have an adult discussion of those viewpoints without resort to ad hominems as summary arguments.
Call me a dreamer. I’m not the only one.
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Well, I agree, but it’s also important to not be so open minded that your brains fall out. Vaccine denial and climate denial are two bridges that are too far for me. Take those positions and I don’t take you seriously. Yeah, RFK is a nut.
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You reveal your ignorance here Dave. RFK Jr is all in on climate change. (It’s one of the positions I disagree with him on.) As well as never having listened to the man discuss either topic. That’s ok, just don’t pretend to have given him anything more than the most cursory of glances.
The inability to communicate with those who disagree with us, especially when those issues are considered sancrosanct, is one of our biggest problems, imo of course.
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RFK Jr is not “all in on climate change”. If I was in a charitable mood, I would characterize his views, at best, as incoherent. This is someone who clearly has no idea of the science behind the warming of the planet by greenhouse gases. A good source on this is RFKJr’s own video on his twitter account (ok, “X” account). https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1692312622337536065
It’s only 1:18 so let’s dig in. He starts out by saying he has a personal belief that the climate crisis is real. And right there he fails — if it’s a personal belief, then it’s not grounded in science. Why should we believe anything he says after this? He then says he doesn’t insist that anyone else needs to share his belief. So, this is more an article of faith for him, like believing in religion or Santa Claus. What other subjects are articles of faith for RFKJr?
Now look at the visual and listen to the words. “The carbon orthodoxy … get it wrong.” On screen we see the headline “EPA chief says carbon dioxide not a primary cause of global warming”. Really? The EPA chief that is referred to here is none other than Scott Pruitt, Trump’s pick for EPA head. Yes, the same Scott Pruitt who had to leave the EPA because of multiple ethics investigations. The same Scott Pruitt who became a lobbyist for a coal company when he left the EPA. So, when RFKJr says there are a lot more important things than “carbon sequestration” we should realize that his scientific source for this is that same Scott Pruitt. And notice how weird it is for him to say “carbon sequestration”, as if the primary goal is to pull CO2 from the atmosphere and bury it in the ground. As opposed to the real goal of switching to energy sources that don’t emit carbon dioxide or methane.
Now RFKJr says that habitat preservation is SOOO much more important, but of course habitats are being threatened because of the poleward migration of plants and animals due to the changing climate. But notice the visual again here, “Net-zero Emissions Policy Bankrupts Britain”, which is an editorial in the WSJ from August, 2022 that blames the soaring price of natural gas on … alternative energy systems. Rather than the obvious cause of the problem which was Russian cutbacks of gas supplies to Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
But that’s not all. It’s only 1 minute 18 seconds, but the lies come fast and furious towards the end. He goes on a rant about …. of all things .. acid rain. (Hey, the 60s and 70s are calling, they want their environmental concerns back). Never mind that the Clean Air Act of 1990 significantly lowered sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissons so that lakes and forests recovered to a large extent. No, not to RFKJr, “From Georgia to Northern Quebec, because of acid rain, all of those high-altitude lakes are now sterile.”
Finally, I would add that when I was still a kid, I saw RFK give a speech when he was running for Senator in NY. HE was inspirational. His son is delusional.
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