It’s Christmas morning for Wisconsin bloggers. That’s right. There’s a new Marquette poll out. Let’s unwrap our gift from Uncle Charles and see what we’ve got.
Taylor is a lock. Yeah, I know. Democratic operatives will hit the panic button to motivate voters, but Chris Taylor will win the Supreme Court race by a comfortable margin, just as the last three liberal candidates have. It looks more up in the air than it is. Taylor is the choice of 23% and Maria Lazar is supported by 17%, while 53% remain undecided and 7% say they won’t vote. But you have to look at the enthusiasm numbers. Fully 77% of Democrats say they’re fired up to vote versus just 59% of Republicans. And those with more years of education are more reliable spring voters. That used to be an advantage for Republicans, but now that’s flipped as college-educated voters are now much more likely to be Democrats. Finally, Trump voters don’t show up when Trump’s not on the ballot. I’ll give you Lazar and 10 points.
This is starting to get serious. Francesca Hong is no blip. The Democratic Socialist who represents Madison’s uber-liberal East Side has led the party’s gubernatorial primary from the start. First with just 6%, then 11% and now 14%, her numbers have improved with each successive Marquette poll. She’s also said to have Zohran Mamdani charm. I still don’t think she gets the nomination, especially as long as she splits the hard-left vote with Mandela Barnes who is right behind her at 11%. But it’s a big drop off after those two with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and Milwaukee’s County Executive David Crowley at just 3% and Milwaukee insider Joel Brennan at only 2%. Hong is benefitting from an early spending blitz on social media ads while the rest are building war chests for later in the game. But ya know, there is a point where the train leaves the station. For those (including me) who fear a Democratic Socialist cannot beat Republican Tom Tiffany it’s not too early to ask the many moderates in the field to sort themselves out and coalesce behind one candidate.
Is anybody paying attention? Fully 75% of those polled were convinced that this Supreme Court race is once again for ideological control of the court. It isn’t. Liberals will have a majority no matter who wins. But if so many voters don’t even get something that fundamental what does it say about their ability to make an informed choice about anything, including breakfast?
More bad news for MAGA World. Trump’s approval numbers in Wisconsin are now at an all time low while strong majorities oppose his attack on Iran, his tariffs and his deportations — all of his signature policies. What he’s got left is the true believers. Of those who describe themselves as all in on MAGA, 88% support his attack on Iran — the only group that supports it at all. These are the same people who once said they opposed foreign interventions and more strongly than other groups. This is more evidence that the MAGAs do not think for themselves about anything. They’ve outsourced that to Trump. They’ll have whatever he’s having. There’s two big problems with that for the GOP. The first is that his support is shrinking down to that hard core base. And the second is that there is no party. There is no platform. There are no core principles. There’s only Trump’s whims and those change between the ninth green and tenth tee. More evidence of a GOP slaughter come November. I don’t know. The way things are going maybe even Francesca Hong prevails.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 