Could Tiffany Win?

I asked an influential Democrat up here in the north woods (where the skiing has been amazing, by the way) who he liked for governor. Before he answered he told me something I hadn’t even thought to ask: he said he thought Tom Tiffany, the Republican Congressman from this part of the state, could win the governor’s race.

That’s pretty much heresy down in Madison, where it is assumed that: 1) It will be an awesome Democratic year, and 2) Nobody’s ever heard of Tom Tiffany, and 3) They won’t like him much when they do hear about him. But my discussion with my friend up here reminded me that you can put a Madison guy’s feet on skis in Watersmeet, but his head can still be down in the Emerald City.

If you’re a fellow Democrat let me add to your worry by observing that we’ve had a Democratic governor now for eight years running. Jim Doyle served for eight years and was replaced by Republican Scott Walker. Walker served for eight years and was replaced by Democrat Tony Evers. It could be that Wisconsin voters tend to want to switch party horses every so often — Tommy G. Thompson being your glaring exception. The guy would probably still be governor if he had kept running — and in some ways he does keep running. He couldn’t help but float his name for governor yet again this time.

Which brings me to a new cause for concern. The latest Marquette poll is out this morning and it contains some sobering news for my party. In a crowded primary, the two candidates most likely to lose to Tiffany have significant leads. Self-proclaimed Democratic socialist Rep. Fancesca Hong is leading with 11% followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 10%. The nearest candidate with a good chance to win in November is current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez at 6%.

Tiffany would surely beat Hong and he’d probably defeat Barnes. Wisconsin is not New York. We’re not going to elect Hong, who sees herself as a Badger version of Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Barnes, while not going so far as to call himself a socialist, has plenty of hard-left baggage of this own. And that baggage weighed him down enough to cost Democrats the 2022 race against the unpopular Sen. Ron Johnson. Wisconsinites chose a sour, dour conspiracy monger over a guy who had called for cutting funding to the Milwaukee police department. It’s likely that virtually any other candidate in that crowded primary would have knocked off Johnson.

Now, of course, it’s early. It has been a quiet race so far and the TV ads haven’t yet started. Rodriguez and former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan will likely have lots of money. And 65% of Democrats say they’re undecided. Even I’m in that camp since I haven’t made up my mind among a number of candidates. In fact, the only thing I have decided is that I won’t vote for Hong or Barnes.

Here’s what I hope is going on right now. Hard-left activists are obsessed with politics. They’re tuned in not just early but all the time. These are the people with bumper stickers that read, “If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention.” (I always drive more carefully around these people because I do not want to get into an accident and have to meet them.) So they hear Hong and Barnes say hard-left stuff and they’re all in. And their combined 21% is about all there is for that vote. About one-in-five Democrats might hold views that far to the left, but when that other 65% gets around to deciding who to back none of them will pick this lane.

Maybe.

But what if the other candidates fracture the vote? Rodriguez, Brennan, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Sen. Kelda Roys and former state economic development secretary Missy Hughes are all pretty good candidates. And what happens if either Hong or Barnes drops out and endorses the other? Could 21% win the primary? Unlikely, but possible depending on just how cut-up the rest of the vote still is come August.

I think the more likely scenario is that those of us who just want to win and beat Tiffany coalesce around one or two candidates and, with the hard-left hitting its ceiling at around a fifth of the primary vote, we’ll be fine.

But there’s plenty of cause for concern right now.