Looks like we’re entering the middle innings now. A couple of weeks ago I wrote that the race for Wisconsin governor was in the third inning. The first three frames were the preliminary moves: putting together a campaign, carving out an identity, choosing issues to emphasize and, crucially, raising money. The campaign finance reports, which were due earlier this month, gave us the first indications of an early score.
Now the campaigns are entering the second act: the dropout innings. Some pitchers aren’t going to make a quality start. The first candidate to leave the field is Republican Josh Schoemann. Schoemann put up respectable numbers through the first three innings, posting almost a million dollars in funds raised. But he was still trailing frontrunner Tom Tiffany, who scored a $2.1 million fundraising haul. The knockout punch for Schoemann came when Donald Trump endorsed Tiffany a couple of days ago.
That in itself tells us a couple of things. It tells us that Trump still controls his party, even with some Republicans at least gently questioning his policies around deportations. Schoemann obviously believed he couldn’t win with Trump endorsing the other guy.
But that cuts both ways. What is still a big asset in a Republican primary could prove deadly in a general election. Trump is deeply unpopular, notably among swing voters. His support, so valuable in August, could well be the kiss of death in November. Also, keep in mind that Tiffany seemed to be headed for an easy win in the primary anyway. So, one could ask why the Trump endorsement was necessary in his case, given that it will come back to bite him in the general.
On the Democratic side nobody has dropped out yet. But I did notice that Kelda Roys, who finished last in the finance reports, is trying to raise $100,000 by the end of this month — only three days away. Maybe she’s got something already lined up and so wants the punch of being able to announce that she met her goal. Or maybe she really is desperate. We’ll see.
Primaries are a mixed bag. When all of Mandela Barnes’ opponents dropped out and endorsed him before primary election day for the Senate nomination in 2022 it robbed him of a momentum-building meaningful primary victory. And his opponents also did him no favors by treating him so gently during the campaign, not raising the issue of his past hard-left stances that eventually cost him the election to Ron Johnson.
So, tough, even nasty, primaries are not all bad. On the other hand, try to convince Tommy Thompson of that. Thompson had to weather a brutal primary in 2012 and found himself bruised and broke going into the general election against Tammy Baldwin, who scored the upset of the century so far.
It’s too early to tell whether Tiffany’s lack of a real primary (he still faces a minor opponent) or the Democrats’ crowded one will prove to be the better preparation for the final innings. But with the endorsement of an unpopular President (perhaps unnecessarily) now around his neck, I think I’d rather have a closer game right now.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 