Brennan In, Conroy Out

Since the announced sale of Exact Sciences, which makes the colon cancer test kit, a few months ago, there’s been speculation that the company’s founder and CEO Kevin Conroy would get in the race for Wisconsin governor.

It now comes down to this: how do you get along with your brother-in-law?

Because yesterday Joel Brennan, who is Conroy’s brother-in-law, announced that he’s joining the crowded field of Democrats looking to replace Tony Evers. I had been skeptical of talk that Conroy — who has been rumored to be a potential gubernatorial candidate for years — would ever take the plunge. And I thought the sale of his company to Abbott Labs for $23 billion would only make that less likely. The sale won’t be finalized until June, so I wouldn’t think his investors would be especially excited to see the company’s image get tossed around in a rough-and-tumble primary. And then there’s always the wild card of Donald Trump messing around in whatever government approvals might be necessary, given that Conroy would be obligated to attack Trump in his campaign.

So now, I suppose it’s safe once again to put away the Conroy speculation for at least another two years — Ron Johnson’s Senate seat is up in 2028.

As for Brennan, I don’t see his path either to the nomination or a general election victory. By all accounts he’s an effective manager and a decent guy and he’s got a lot of high-level executive experience. He was DOA Secretary under Evers where he was one of the few Evers appointments who was approved by the Republican Senate. Even then Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald had nice things to say about him. Note: this will not likely appear in Brennan’s TV ads.

But here’s his problem: he’s steeped in Milwaukee and that’s just deadly. Brennan is as Milwaukee as they come. He ran Tom Barrett’s campaigns both for governor and mayor, he ran the Milwaukee-based Discovery Center and now he is the President of the Greater Milwaukee Committee — which is the very definition of the Milwaukee establishment.

Now, I grew up in the Milwaukee area and I like it. I voted for Tom Barrett for governor every chance I got — and he gave me a few. But Barrett didn’t win and it wasn’t because he wasn’t a nice guy or didn’t have the credentials. It’s hard to overestimate how much antipathy there is in the rest of the state toward the big city. There’s a perception that the city is a drain on taxpayers, though it’s probably a net plus for the economy. There’s a perception that it’s filled with crime, when in fact it’s safe if you’re not involved in crime yourself. And of course there’s some degree of racism involved.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter. Fair or not, Milwaukee isn’t popular and being so closely identified with it is a net loser for a pol. Herb Kohl was able to overcome that, but Kohl had a broader reputation as a successful businessman and philanthropist. And it didn’t hurt that he could fund his own campaign.

The only Wisconsin governor in my lifetime who was from Milwaukee was Marty Schreiber. Schreiber was the lieutenant governor when he took over for Pat Lucey in 1977 when Lucey left to become ambassador to Mexico. So he hadn’t been elected to the office himself and when he ran for reelection in his own right in 1978, he lost to Lee Dreyfus of Stevens Point. In other words, since 1960 nobody from Milwaukee has been elected governor.

There is the Scott Walker exception. It’s true that Walker was the Milwaukee County Executive, but he was adamantly from Wauwatosa and he made it a point to run against the city both as a state legislator and as a candidate for governor. He did the city no favors by killing its high speed rail connection, a key platform item that he used to convince the rest of the state that he disliked both Milwaukee and Madison.

And, as if that wasn’t enough. Brennan faces two other Milwaukee-based candidates in the primary — Mandela Barnes and David Crowley.

Finally, there’s the mood of Democratic voters. I think most of us are still very much in practical, just-want-to-win mode. And Brennan, for all of his abilities, has to be one of the weakest potential candidates in a general election.

Brennan’s real contribution may be in a negative sense. What concerns me about this crowded field is that a candidate could win the nomination with a relatively small share of the vote. That makes an equally weak general election candidate — Barnes — a dangerous possibility for the nomination. So, another Milwaukee candidate could make a Barnes primary victory a little less likely.

From what I know of him, I like Joel Brennan. I think he’d probably make a good governor. But my only criteria is who has the best chance of winning. That’s not him.