Early Handicap on Wis Guv’s Race

Sabato is wrong. Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists next year’s Wisconsin governor’s race as a toss up. It’s not. Democrats have a big advantage.

The only thing you really need to know is that Trump voters show up only to vote for Trump. That has been amply demonstrated in countless races all over the country for the last decade. The most recent and very stark example was last April’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which was supposed to be close. Trump did everything he could to turn out the vote for his preferred conservative candidate. Elon Musk showed up to offer to pay for votes. And Trump’s guy got creamed by 10 points.

I don’t expect that the Dems have a built-in 10 point advantage in a governor’s race, but I’ll bet it’s in the three-point range and that’s still significant. So this race will be the Democrats’ to lose, Don’t sell them short. I know my party can blow this.

So, let’s see how the race is shaping up in the early going.

The Republicans were the first to have announced candidates in Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and Whitefish Bay businessman Bill Berrien. Congressman Tom Tiffany, who represents Northeast Wisconsin, is also considering joining the race. In pre-MAGA times, Schoemann and Berrien might have been mainstream conservatives and attractive candidates. But as John Torinus has pointed out, they both believe that they can’t capture the nomination without catering to Trump. That disqualifies them in my book and it’s not going to help them with independents should either get the nomination. The fact that Republicans aren’t likely to have a candidate who doesn’t profess to be all MAGA is another big advantage for the Democrats.

The first Democrat to announce was Lieutenant Gov. Sara Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been a low profile second to Tony Evers. Her name recognition is probably quite low, but I don’t think that matters much. She was a legislator who held down a swing district in Waukesha County, a talking point to her advantage. She worked extensively in the health care industry, which can cut both ways. If she can portray herself as a nurse, which she was, that helps. If she is cast as a health care executive, which she also was, that won’t help her. She also worked for the CDC, probably a significant net negative for her. Overall, I see her health care background as a pretty strong political negative that she’ll have to overcome.

Next to jump in was Milwaukee union activist Ryan Strnad. Actually, “union activist” may be misleading. It doesn’t appear as if Strnad has ever held a union leadership position. He’s a beer vendor at the Brewer games and is a member of a union through that. He also works at a factory and at a dry cleaners. When Democrats talk about the working class, Strnad is the real thing. And he has positions that other Democrats could emulate: he’s pro-choice but also unapologetically pro-cop. He was against the heavy COVID restrictions that are proving to be questionable. He says he cares about the environment, but supports oil and gas pipeline projects that activists oppose. He has no experience that would qualify him to be governor and he’ll struggle to be taken seriously, but his positions on issues are right where the Democrats should be.

Joining the race in August, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has a good reputation both in that office and in his former gig as a legislator. He’s got the public executive experience and should do well in Milwaukee, which will help him in the primary. That’s especially true if it turns out that he’s the only strong candidate from Milwaukee while the Dane County vote is split between several candidates. He’s Black, which is an advantage in the primary and probably not much of a disadvantage in the general election. Remember that Barack Obama won Wisconsin twice and with comfortable margins both times. His bigger handicap is that he comes from Milwaukee. Don’t underestimate the dislike for the big city in the rest of the state.

Next up is Madison State Senator Kelda Roys. Roys did better than expected when she ran for governor in the 2018 primary, so she has that to build on. But one of her advantages then was that she was one of only two women in a crowded primary. With three women running already and probably a fourth set to join the race, that advantage will be diluted. Roys leans heavily on the gender card, which is reminiscent of Kirsten Gillibrand’s presidential bid in 2020. Don’t remember that? Point made. Identity politics isn’t even a sure bet in a Democratic primary and it hurts in a general.

Within a week of Roys’ announcement came a bid from Madison’s East Side State Representative Francesca Hong. Hong is a Democratic Socialist and this isn’t New York City. She would lose a general election, but she won’t get the nomination. Instead, she’ll be a spoiler who will make it doubly hard for her own State Senator, who is Roys, to get the party’s nod.

It seems like a sure bet that Missy Hughes, who just resigned as Evers’ economic development head and is the former general counsel for Organic Valley, will enter the race very soon. I don’t know much about Hughes, but I like her general profile. If she comes off as a no-nonsense, technocrat, competent manager without a strong ideological bent, that could be just the ticket.

Finally, there’s Attorney General Josh Kaul. I had thought he’d be the first one in, but apparently he really is weighing the race. He has two young children and he understands what a bruising process a governor’s race is. This may be a Catch-22 situation in which he proves his sanity by taking a pass, thereby establishing himself as the most worthy candidate.

I don’t have a favorite yet. Right now I’d say Crowley and Hughs seem most promising and Kaul would be worth a look if he decides to get in. What we don’t have yet, outside of Strnad, is a candidate like Rahm Emanuel, who is almost surely running for president and who has clearly staked out the moderate lane. Give me a credible candidate who sounds like Emanuel (without his rough edges, which don’t play in Wisconsin) and I’m onboard.