Theories of the Election

There are lots of theories about how this election will turn out. I subscribe to them all just so that, after election day, I’ll pick one, say ‘I told you so,’ and be right. 

Here’s a roundup of all the theories I can think of. Pick your favorite and feel free to add your own in the comments section. 

Harris isn’t Hillary. Advantage: Harris. I came up with this one myself and I like it. The idea is that Trump is the same guy he was eight years ago, but Harris is a better candidate than Hillary Clinton. And, since the unpopular Clinton lost the Electoral College by only 77,000 votes spread over three states, Harris should be able to make that up and plenty more. 

It’ll be about Black men. Advantage: Trump. There has been a whole lot of Democratic hand wringing over the brothers. Black men will still vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat, but they’ve been drifting right in the last few elections. Harris needs a huge margin from them and if the margin is only very big, that might be enough to tip the election against her. 

It’ll be about abortion. Advantage: Harris. This is the one issue on which Harris has the upper hand and, luckily, it’s also the issue that voters say is most likely to influence their vote. Plus nine states, including the swing states of Nevada and Arizona, have abortion measures on the ballot. 

It’ll be about the economy (stupid). Advantage: Trump. The economy has been the top issue by far in this election from the start and Trump has had a big lead on it. People believe they were personally better off under Trump and they hold Biden, and by extension Harris, responsible for inflation. But when you ask voters, not what issues are most important, but what issue would change their vote, they say abortion. See above. 

It’ll be about the money. Advantage: Harris. Harris has raised a billion dollars and counting since July while her campaign and affiliated groups will easily outspend Trump and company. I’m not so sure it’ll matter as, once a saturation point has been reached, another TV ad doesn’t have much effect. 

It’ll be about immigration. Advantage: Trump. Harris has narrowed the gap here, but it’s still Trump’s signature issue. But it ties with abortion in distant second place behind the economy. Yet, abortion has more potential to move voters. 

It’ll be about democracy. Advantage: Harris. Biden was hitting on this theme a lot harder than Harris, but Harris has given it a twist. She’s using Never Trump Republican surrogates to make that argument on her behalf. The idea is to turn Never Trumpers into positive votes for Harris. It won’t be a lot, but in a close race it could be enough. 

It’ll be about Israel. Advantage: Trump. Another way of saying this is that it’ll be about third party candidates, just as it was with Ralph Nader in 2000. The idea here is that, while the Middle East and foreign policy in general, doesn’t register among top issues, there will be enough disenchantment on the hard-left that they’ll decamp for Jill Stein, enough to cost Harris Wisconsin and maybe Pennsylvania and even more likely Michigan with its large Palestinian population. 

It’ll be about change. Advantage: Harris. This flipped a few weeks ago. For most of the campaign voters saw Trump as the change agent, even though he actually served as president. But now they see Harris as the bringer of new things. 

It’ll be about the polls. Advantage: Trump. Polling has continually underestimated Trump by two or three points. Pollsters like to think they’ve tweaked their models to fix that, but it’s not clear they have. The problem is that less than 10% of voters who are contacted actually agree to take the surveys. And it could be that it’s Trump voters, with their distrust of institutions, who are most reluctant to answer. And, Trump voters show up only for Trump. So, the surprising Democratic strength in the 2022 mid-terms might not apply to an election where Trump is on the ballot. 

It’ll be about early voting. Advantage: Harris. Early voting in Wisconsin opened the other day with a bang. There were long lines in Milwaukee and Madison. Same thing in North Carolina. To be sure, Republicans are catching up in promoting early balloting, but with Trump sending mixed messages about the whole system, I’d still give a significant edge to the Dems. It could be that Harris will have a ton of votes in the bank before election day and then it’ll be a question of how many Trump voters actually show up on November 5th. 

So, there you go. Eleven theories with Harris holding a narrow, 6-5 lead. Just as it should be.

And on another matter... the Wisconsin Policy Forum reports that chronic absenteeism in Wisconsin public schools stood at almost 20% of students in the last school year. For Madison the rate is an incredible 35%. And we want to reward this kind of performance with $607 million in referendums without any performance goals because…