Harris Isn’t Hillary

I have many theories about this election, some contradictory. One I like is that Kamala Harris will win simply because she’s not Hillary Clinton.

Here’s how that one goes. In 2016 Clinton won the popular vote and she only lost the Electoral College by a total of 77,000 votes spread out among three states, including about 22,000 in Wisconsin. (Biden’s margin was actually narrower — he won by only 44,000 votes.) And yet she was the most unpopular presidential candidate since pollsters began tracking that — save for Donald Trump.

So, my theory is that Trump is still Trump, only more so. But Harris isn’t Hillary and so she makes up that 77,000 votes and then some.

I thought Clinton had four problems. First, she came off as entitled. She felt she deserved to be president and that came through. Voters don’t like to be taken for granted. Second, she had clear disdain, not just for Trump, but for his voters (“basketfuls of deplorables”). Third, she ran a terrible campaign, never even bothering to step foot in Wisconsin. And lastly, she leaned into identity, reminding voters at every stop that she would be the first woman president.

Harris isn’t doing any of that. She’s working hard for every vote. She comes off as hungry, not entitled. She’s targeting persuadable Republicans and she’s careful not to disparage Trump voters while she justifiably disparages Trump. Not only is she not ignoring Wisconsin, she’s practically living here. At last count she had made something like 17 trips to the state. And, finally she’s taking a page out of Barack Obama’s book and not dwelling on the obvious history-making aspects of her candidacy.

When pressed on that last point in an interview this week with NBC she said, “Well, I’m clearly a woman, I don’t need to point that out to anyone. The point that most people really care about is, can you do the job, and do you have a plan to actually focus on them?”

Perfect answer. And here’s the thing. Despite that tack she’s doing much better than Clinton did with white college-educated women — the very demographic that was the heart of Hillary’s base. Below is a graphic that illustrates the point. Clinton won these women by seven points. Harris has an incredible 40 point lead over Trump with this same group.

But now here’s the downside. It’s the only group in which she holds a lead. She’s behind with non-college white women and men and with college-educated men. The good news is that she’s narrowed the margin vis a vis Clinton in each category. For example. Clinton lost college-educated white men by 14 point while Harris trails Trump by only three.

Maybe this means that Harris will win. I don’t know. There are lots of other factors — like the drift of Black and Hispanic voters toward Trump — that aren’t taken into account here. But what’s clear is that Harris’ decision to eschew identity politics is helping her.