In the 2022 mid term elections all the smart money was on the Democrats getting creamed. It didn’t happen. Why? Abortion. It turned out that an issue that was lagging in the polls actually was the key to Democratic success.
A similar dynamic may be playing out this year. Once again abortion ranks a distant second, tied with immigration, and well behind the number one issue: the economy.
And yet, maybe pollsters are asking the wrong question. When NBC News asked a slightly different question they got a very different answer from voters. NBC asked what issue had the potential to actually change a voter’s mind about a candidate. Here’s their question: “Is there one issue you feel so strongly about that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that issue?” And the top issue in that case was reproductive rights.
The bottom line is that while people may think of the economy as the most important issue to them, they may also think that it really doesn’t matter much who they elect to deal with it. Or maybe it does matter, it’s just that it’s not as important as something as fundamental as reproductive rights. Because on that issue the contrasts are stark. Democrats will protect and work to reinstate that right while Republicans struggle to throw off their long-standing solidly anti-abortion posture.
Nine states have abortion questions on their ballots this fall: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. In four of those — Arizona, Maryland, Montana and Nevada — the issue could help elect Democrats. Arizona and Nevada are two of seven states that will decide the presidential election and Montana and Maryland have hotly contested Senate races.
Then there’s Texas, where Republicans were able to keep the issue off the ballot in a direct question. But the issue will still be there as three state supreme court justices are up for reelection. All three have voted to uphold the state’s near total abortion ban. That could play a role in Democrat Colin Allred’s effort to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz. Recent polls have Allred only four points behind.
Similarly, in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for his life and is now seven points behind his Republican challenger. But again, Constitutional Initiative 128, which would enshrine abortion rights in the constitution, is on the ballot. It probably wouldn’t be enough to help Tester overcome a seven point deficit, but combined with other factors — including the usual tightening of races as election day approaches — it could save Tester and with him the Democrats’ Senate majority.
So, maybe abortion lies hidden in the mounting polling muddle, only to emerge as the results start rolling in on the evening of November 5th.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
“And yet, maybe pollsters are asking the wrong question.” Is exactly why I put little stock in the polls. Garbage in, garbage out. And WHO they are polling also plays a big role. Honestly, I don’t see the economy being a young person’s biggest concern. That sounds like families and old folks problems. The younger people care about the issues that will affect them directly, most personally and long term. They are smart enough to know that the economy is fleeting and not exactly ever totally in the politicians hands. There are many other factors at play there. Plus, by many standards we currently have great economy. Women, younger ones who aren’t being asked a thing, are going to show up to preserve their rights to not just abortion, but birth control! All these restrictions are giving “handmaid’s tale” – and that’s not lost on them.
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It makes sense to play the hand you’ve got. With Mitch McConnell’s two-faced help, Trump appointed conservative Supreme Court Justices who wasted no time overturning Roe v. Wade. It was the classic example of the dog catching the car. The Republicans have been run over again and again while trapped under those wheels. Trump, who first bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade, later tried to distance himself from his own accomplishment by criticizing various onerous versions of the law (such as Florida’s recently reinstated 6-week ban), thus enraging antiabortion activists who want a total ban, with no exceptions, enshrined in federal law. Because Trump is a pathological liar, he will sign a complete federal ban if he once again becomes President. Anti-abortion activists are probably aware of this, because they know Trump, and have kept relatively quiet in recent weeks.
In both the presidential and down-ballot races, American voters should be reminded constantly that under Republican rule, no woman will have control over her own body. And it will go downhill from there, as the Project 2025 playbook rolls out. The Republican concept of “liberty” does not in any way extend to women.
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