Immigration Dogs the Dems

I’m never quite sure if Donald Trump is a mad genius or just mad.

During his debate with Kamala Harris I was watching it with a Republican friend who, when Trump brought up Haitians eating pets, put his head in his hands. I guess he didn’t want to see the smile on my face.

But here’s the thing. The debunked conspiracy theory has the effect of keeping immigration front and center. We’re all talking about it. To a large extent elections are won and lost over one thing: the top issue or candidate trait that is on voters’ minds when they go to the polls. So if the top issue is abortion the Democrats win. If the top issue is immigration the Republicans will come out on top.

So, Trump and J.D. Vance keep fanning the flames of this story, provoking exasperation from the press and from commentators — even many Republicans. But I’m starting to think that they’re not just awful people — though they certainly are awful people. It’s looking like it’s part of a broader strategy to keep immigration top of mind for voters.

I’ve come to think that because immigration is becoming the main thing Republicans everywhere want to talk about. This week Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany accused the Dane County Sheriff of not cooperating with ICE. He shot back against Tiffany’s unfounded claim, but that had the effect of giving legs to Tiffany’s story. (When I was mayor I always thought twice before responding to attacks for this very reason. My view was that by responding I gave the attacks themselves more attention than they deserved.)

In Washington, Speaker Mike Johnson has made the potent combination of immigration and voting an issue by forcing it into his bill to keep the government running. The provision would ban non-citizens from voting, something that is already illegal. Johnson couldn’t even get that through his own house, with even some Republicans voting against it. But that wasn’t the point. Like the pet-eating story the idea was to keep immigration in the news.

And back here in Wisconsin the Republicans have put a state constitutional amendment on the November ballot declaring that only citizens can vote in federal, state and local elections. Since that’s already the case in federal and state elections, the practical effect is stop local governments — I could see Madison or Dane County doing this some day — from allowing non-citizens to vote, but none are actively pursuing that right now. Again, it’s a non-issue designed to keep the hot issue of immigration in the spotlight. (While I have no sympathy for what the Republicans are up to here, I’ll vote for the amendment because I believe you should be a citizen to vote and I do think that, at some point, Madison would try to allow non-citizen voting in local elections.)

The bottom line is that while people like me and even sane Republican strategists pull their hair out over this stuff, there’s method to the madness. It’s one thing that most of us have not understood about Trump. I don’t think it’s considered strategy on his part so much as it is a natural instinct to find the thing that keeps him and his favored issues in front of the public. It’s a play on the old theory that there is no such thing as bad press — outside of appearing in the obits.

And on a related matter… the latest AARP Wisconsin poll is out and it shows a reversal of coattails. In the previous poll taken in July after Biden’s debate debacle the poll had Trump up seven points. Now he’s down three to Harris. The July poll also had Tammy Baldwin with a comfortable lead over Eric Hovde, but now that race is tightening with Baldwin up only three points. So, when Biden was in the race it looked like Baldwin might pull him over the finish line, while now it appears that Harris might help save Baldwin.