Before we take a look at J.D. Vance, the thing that really struck me about the first night of the Republican convention was the appearance of Sean O’Brien, the head of the Teamsters Union. It was the first time the Teamsters had ever appeared at a GOP conclave. And he didn’t change a word of the kind of speech he might have delivered to the Democrats. The theme was corporate greed… at a Republican convention… and he was cheered.
So, the Teamsters haven’t changed, but the Republicans have. If anything seals the deal on the transformation of this party into a blue collar populist party this was it.
Now about J.D. Vance. Let’s look at different aspects of that pick.
Geography. Ohio media drifts into Pennsylvania and Michigan and that might be the most important asset that Vance brings to the ticket. If those states remain close and Vance delivers only ten or twenty thousand votes, it could be the difference.
Flip Flop. It was only a few years ago that Vance called Trump “America’s Hitler” and “cultural cocaine.” The Democratic ads write themselves.
Abortion. From a Democratic perspective this should be the most significant thing about Vance. Their only real chance right now is to make this election a referendum on reproductive rights. Just two years ago in his Senate campaign, Vance said he was against abortion even in cases of rape and insist. And, as a senator, he supported a national 15 week abortion ban. He’s tried to soften his position since, but Democrats will have none of it.
Age. At 39, he’s exactly half Trump’s age. That may provide some needed youth to the ticket and emphasize the Biden age issue even more. But most importantly it suggests that Trump is looking beyond himself to sustain that transformation that the Teamsters appearance signaled.
Temperament. He’s a bulldog like Trump. That could suggest that, in the wake of the attempt on his life, Trump may back off on some of his more caustic rhetoric and outsource that to his running mate, a traditional role for the VP candidate anyway.
Experience. Vance’s total government experience is two years in the Senate and before that he was a best-selling author. Democrats will have to go lightly on this, as there was another Senator who was also an author with only a few years in the Senate: Barack Obama.
Election Lies. Vance has said that, if he were in Mike Pence’s shoes on January 6th, he would have invited and entertained consideration of the slates of fake electors from Wisconsin and other states. More on that in a bit, but this is more fuel for the Democrats’ “threat to democracy” argument. I’m not sure that that is a very fruitful line of attack. It’s harder now because any reference to “existential threats to democracy” will face accusations of heated rhetoric leading to violence, never mind what the Republicans have done to our political discourse over the past decade. But even before the assassination attempt, I didn’t see that argument as getting much traction. I think it came off to a lot of voters as overwrought, even if it seems plenty plausible to me.
A few weeks ago Vance gave an interview to New York Times center-right columnist Ross Douthat. Overall, I thought Vance did a masterful job of explaining his transition from a darling of the left to a Trumpite. I even agreed with him on several things, including this passage that echoed the kind of criticism I’ve often made of the NPR left: “I think most of us who are generally socially aware have a voice in our head that says: “You shouldn’t say this; you should try to say that. Maybe you believe this, but you should try to put it a little bit more diplomatically.” And in 2020 that voice had become absolutely tyrannical. There was nothing you were allowed to say. Offending someone was an act of violence. I think a lot of us just said: “We’re done with this. We’re not playing this game, and we refuse to be policed in what we think and what we say.”
But then Douthat asked about the election and Vance just completely lost me. I understand that to remain viable as a Veep pick he had to pass the litmus test of backing up Trump’s lies. but that’s a bridge too far for me. It wipes out any respect I might have had for the man. He’s too smart to believe what he said, but he said it anyway to protect his ambition.
Successful politicians are flexible, they do what they need to do and they say what they need to say. But they should also have some core beliefs, some lines that they will not cross and some sense of self worth. J.D. Vance has the flexibility needed to advance his ambition, but there’s no sign he has the core beliefs that make him fit for high office.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 