Could Madison’s School Referenda Elect Trump?

Could Madison voters do the unthinkable? No, not vote for Donald Trump. Let’s be serious. I mean could they vote down a school referendum? And if they do that, could it chip away at the overwhelming margin that Biden will win by in the city come November thereby nudging a close election in Trump’s direction?

Madison voters have not rejected a school referendum since 2005 and the most recent referendums have passed by three-to-one margins. But that could change this fall. It is all but certain that later this month the school board will put two questions on the same ballot as the presidential election. If they stick with the plan as outlined in today’s Wisconsin State Journal the two referendums would add hundreds of dollars to the average Madison property tax bill each of the next few years, culminating in a total hit of an additional $1,300 by 2028.

This is some sticker shock. For the first time in a couple of decades I’m not absolutely certain that a school referendum will pass in Madison. We’ll have to see about two things. First will the public reaction to the proposal be so strong that the board trims back on the questions before it makes its final vote to put them on the ballot? And second, if they do go ahead with a number this big will it generate organized opposition?

To complicate matters, the city of Madison is still mulling its own ballot question. The city faces a $22 million budget hole and it looks to face two options. It can go to referendum to exceed state taxing limits or it can dip more deeply into its rainy day fund. That fund is flush, but the practice of funding ongoing operations out of savings isn’t sustainable in the long run. My guess right now is that, if the school board moves ahead with its referendums at the current number, the city will go to its reserves and put off the inevitable referendum for another year. Because if the city asks to add several hundred dollars to that $1,300 from the schools it makes it even more likely that all these questions will go down.

All of this is further complicated by the current mood of the city. The top issue, as defined by policy makers, is the cost of housing. Prices for both renters and those looking to buy a home are going up fast, mostly because developers can’t keep pace with demand. Adding $1,300 or more to the average property tax bill is going to make a tough problem much tougher.

Related to that is a backlash to city plans to increase housing density. A small revolt has started on the West Side, sparked by a proposed city plan that would have rezoned some properties for potentially bigger residential buildings. Unhappiness over that has boiled over into some grumbling over the city budget. That’s another reason for the city to put off its own referendum.

If you don’t live in Madison you might not care about any of this. But here’s the interesting statewide question. What if the school board goes ahead with its $1,300 proposal? What if there’s organized opposition? And what if that opposition turns out conservative voters who wouldn’t bother to vote otherwise? What if some conservative voters, who wouldn’t normally support Trump, become so angered by liberal management of their schools that they vote for him out of frustration?

And what if all that narrows Biden’s margin in Madison by just, say, two or three percent? That would mean about 5,000 votes. In a state likely to be decided by 20,000 votes either way and combined with smaller margins for Biden here and there, that could flip Wisconsin, and with it the whole election.