In politics it’s usually a good idea to pick a lane and stay there.
But on Gaza, Pres. Joe Biden is trying to thread a needle and that will not redound to his benefit. Biden has been supporting Israel in its war on Hamas, but he keeps looking over his shoulder at the tiny hard-left wing of his party. The other day he made what I consider to be a major blunder in cutting off the shipment of bombs to Israel that could be used in an attack on Rafah. Here’s why I think that’s a bad idea:
First, it won’t stop the attack. Israel has said it will move ahead anyway, but with a different and probably more deadly approach, both for civilians and for the Israeli military. New York Times columnist Bret Stephens made this point in a piece the other day. He wrote that Israel will now probably use, “far-less accurate 120-millimeter tank shells and 5.56-millimeter bullets. Other than putting Israeli troops at greater risk, does the Biden administration really think the toll for Palestinians will be less after weeks or months of house-to-house combat?”
Second, the attack probably should go ahead with or without American support. Rafah is home to a concentration of Hamas terrorists and their leadership. Israel has come this far in reducing Hamas’ ability to wage war, so they should finish the job.
Third, the small group that Biden is trying to appeal to is loud but otherwise not all that significant. Eighty-percent of Americans support Israel over Hamas and even 57% of young Americans support Israel. Maybe most importantly, young voters identified this conflict as the 15th most important issue to them out of 16 listed. So, no matter what Biden does on this it’s not going to move a lot of voters, but supporting Israel is the far more popular position.
Fourth, this won’t placate the hard-left. If there is any iron rule of politics it’s that hard-left activists will never be happy. Being angry and self-righteous is in their DNA.
Fifth, this contributes to the narrative that Biden is less than resolute. I think that’s unfair, but it’s out there. This relates back to my point three above. It’s not so much that the action of withholding the weapons itself will cost him votes; the problem is how it reinforces a broader criticism of him.
Sixth, related to the last two points, it’s another example of Biden’s apparent fear of the hard-left. I’m convinced that if he stood up to them — the way Bill Clinton did in his Sister Souljah move in 1992 — he’d reap substantial political benefits in the middle. In short, standing up to the hard-left would help him win the election, but he and his advisors seem to think just the opposite. It looks to me like a coastal bubble syndrome. They think the world they live in reflects the country as a whole. They’re wrong about that.
What’s happening in Gaza is horrible, but it’s a horror created by Hamas. Biden has been right to support Israel and it does him no good to start hedging now.
That’s it for this week. We’ll have the Quote and Quiz tomorrow. See you back here Monday.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
this post is way off base. You are citing a poll that has little to do with the question at hand. Sure, people support Israel over Hamas, but polls have shown that most Americans no longer support Israel’s war in Gaza:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx
Among voters in his party, you know it’s even more lopsided. You yourself have voiced concerns about the war … it’s not a “hard left” thing.
Who are the people you imagine Biden is at risk of losing for not being subservient enough to Bibi? How many swing voters in swing states give a crap about this issue?
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I love your blog … it has kept me sane knowing there is an articulate local voice in the mostly mute middle (we don’t provide good click bait as centrists I think) ready to call b.s when needed. But with this topic I’m repeatedly so surprised at your stance. In fact I’m commenting on this piece instead of today’s because in a little fit I deleted your current piece–oops.
We centrists should first and foremost try really hard to see through the labels. Calling the disgust many people feel for Israel’s total destruction of Palestinian infrastructure (schools, hospitals, power plants, roads, water … ) and mothers, fathers and children, at the hands of a corrupt self-serving man who has actively undermined every effort for Palestinians to get a foothold in self-determination for decades is not a ‘far left’ sentiment. I think a lot of people (left, right and center) feel this disgust but are afraid to voice it. It doesn’t mean we support Hamas, that Israel shouldn’t exist, or that we are antisemetic. It means we are disgusted at the path Israel’s leaders have chosen.
This conflict has a lot to do with land grabs, opportunism, servant class vs elite, etc., but for we the general public, emphasizing who is Jewish and who is Arab inflames the passions and makes for great click bait.
And media coverage of the police – student encampments? That has already been shown to be provocative, selective in its telling and showing, to attract the most viewers and stir emotions.
My wish? Israel, a country created following a horrific breakdown of humanity, should be poised to help rather than persecute another people to this degree. But what I wish even more is that when we think about this topic and so many others we could start by dissecting where manipulation and emotional provocation is happening.
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The key point for me is that Hamas and other like groups in the region do not recognize Israel’s right to exist. “From the river to the sea” is not a slogan about peaceful coexistence. So when I refer to hard-left groups I don’t mean people who simply want the war to end and for a two state solution to come into being. I’m talking about those who actually praise Hamas or who want to ignore the fact that it was a Hamas attack that has provoked this horror.
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