Mod Dems Win

My partisan Democratic friends are popping champagne bottles over Democrat Tom Suozzi’s win in a special election to replace the storied George Santos in his Long Island district.

For the most part, I think their enthusiasm is at best premature. The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote this morning:

Over the last three decades, there has been essentially zero relationship between presidential results and special election outcomes, based on data collected by Daily Kos. And this particular election had many idiosyncrasies.

For one thing Santos had reminded independents and moderate Democrats what you get when you don’t show up. So they showed up. For another thing the result — an eight point win for the Democrat — mirrored Biden’s eight point victory in the District in 2020. And the Democrats outspent the other guys two-to-one.

But I think there is one significant lesson that might have come from this: don’t hide and don’t be afraid to take on the hard-left in your own party. Here’s part of what I thought was another cogent analysis in this morning’s Times:

The strategy went something like this: Challenge Republicans on issues that they usually monopolize, like crime, taxes and, above all, immigration. Flash an independent streak. And fire up the Democratic base with attacks — in this case, nearly $10 million in ads — on the abortion issue and former President Donald J. Trump, the likely Republican nominee for the White House.

“It’s a very interesting lesson to Democrats that you can escape your opponent’s attacks on immigration by not only leaning into the issue, but doubling down on it,” said Steve Israel, a former congressman from the district who once led the House Democrats’ campaign arm.

Suouzzi took a hard line on immigration. He called on Pres. Biden to close the border and he called for the deportation of a gang of migrants who had attacked cops in Manhattan.

The lesson for Democrats is clear. Be against a porous border. Be against crime. Be for abortion rights with sensible restrictions in the third trimester. If you hear it on NPR don’t say it or, better yet, say just the opposite.

Suozzi had the advantage of not having to fend off his party’s hard-left in a primary. Democrats should do what they can to shut down hard-left challengers in every swing district so that their candidates are free to be what Suozzi could be: moderate and sensible and able to deal head on with the real concerns of voters.