Let’s get serious about replacing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket.
All I want to do is to keep Donald Trump out of the White House. While I like Biden, like the vast majority of Democrats, I have no particular loyalty to him. I’ve stuck with him, more or less, until recently because I thought he had the best shot of beating Trump.
But that has always been a close call and in recent months I’ve been becoming more convinced that renominating Biden/Harris is somewhat more risky than the almost equally risky proposition of finding another team. None of this is easy or clear and I fully admit to the possibility that I could be wrong and will be proven so come November.
Biden’s big advantage to this point is that he’s had the party united behind him. Not perfectly. Not without grumbling. But the consensus has been that he’s our best bet against Trump. So, the big risk is that if that consensus goes away and there’s an open battle for the nomination, a united Democratic Party becomes splintered.
It’s a risk, but one worth taking for two reasons. The first is Trump himself. Assuming he’s the Republican nominee, whatever arguments ensue during the nomination process will get patched up by the fall when we face the prospect of four more years of Trump. Ironically, it’s not Biden who unites the party; it’s Trump.
And the second reason that it’s worth the risk is that the risk of staying with Biden/Harris is even greater. Consider the following:
Biden’s approval rating is dismal. The latest polling analysis from the website 538 shows Biden’s net approval/disapproval ratings running from -14 to -23 (meaning that 14% or 23% more people disapprove than approve of him). And those numbers have been in the tank since nine months into his presidency. People are dug in on their opinions about him. Maybe if the economy continues strong it will have a long-term positive effect on his numbers. But it’s hard to see those numbers ever creeping above 50% approval or anywhere near it, for that matter.
Harris’ approval numbers are even worse. Usually, the VP doesn’t matter, but because Biden is a shaky 81-year old, the second spot matters a lot this time. The last thing Democrats need is for voters to look past Biden and to think about a President Harris. Her approval rating is only 28%. But Biden’s in a bind. Because of the importance of identity in Democratic politics he can’t drop her. But if he’s gone from the ticket so is she. We can start over.
The age issue is real. True-believer partisans are in an uproar over “agism!!!” They want to portray special counsel Robert Hur’s report pointing out Biden’s age-related missteps in his deposition as the hit job of a partisan hack. They emphasize that he was a Trump-appointed prosecutor, conveniently leaving out the fact that he was a Merrick Garland-appointed special counsel. But normal human beings just see what they see. And what they see is a stiff, frail man who can’t keep his facts straight. And astounding 86% of Americans think Biden is too old for the job. Whatever the behind the scenes reality, Biden doesn’t convey competence and strength and conveying that is part of the job description. Frankly, I think Biden was selfish and irresponsible to run again. If he really loved his country he’d sacrifice his own ego and step down as a candidate now. He won’t. So it’s time party leaders convinced him to go. And, by the way, if you’re going to have a hastily called fiery news conference to display your vitality it has to be flawless. You can’t, just for example, confuse the president of Egypt with the president of Mexico.
Biden is losing both nationally and in virtually every swing state. A December poll from Morning Consult/Bloomberg News found Trump led in North Carolina by 11 points followed by Georgia at seven points, Wisconsin by six points, Nevada by five, in Michigan by four points, Arizona by three points and Pennsylvania by two. On average Trump holds a 5.28% lead in seven swing states. The latest Marquette poll found Trump and Biden in a dead heat in Wisconsin, so the numbers will vary, but they vary within the same depressing range. Nothing shows Biden with a significant lead in any key state.
Trump’s voters are rabid while Biden’s are dispirited. That latest Marquette poll shows a 19 point enthusiasm advantage of Trump voters over Biden voters. Now, it’s true that the real enthusiasm for Democrats isn’t voting for Biden, but in voting against Trump, but that leads to my next point.
Without Trump Biden is swamped. The Marquette poll, consistent with national polls, shows Nikki Haley crushing Biden. While her 22 point margin in Wisconsin wouldn’t hold up in a real election, it just underscores the fact that nobody is voting for Biden. If my prayers were answered and Trump went away tomorrow, the Democrats would be in a world of hurt. And what if Trump doesn’t go away but starts to fade? What if October polls showed Biden with a comfortable lead? With no real support of his own, Biden voters might stay home or drift off to some third party looney toon while Trump’s core voters will walk across broken glass to vote for him.
The October surprise. This is my biggest fear. Come October Biden does a Mitch McConnell. He’s asked a question and he just stares off into the distance. Then what?
For all these reasons my conclusion is that it’s more risky to stay with Biden than it is to find somebody else.
And, despite what the partisans will try to tell you, we are not locked in. It is not too late. Sure, it’s too late for other candidates to get on the primary ballots in most remaining states, but that’s not the end of the world. Candidates could run write in campaigns and the party could organize caucuses. I’d rather have a somewhat messy contest to replace a weak candidate than an organized march to oblivion.
There is the danger that the identity politics hard-left could prevail with a ticket even less electable than Biden/Harris. A few months ago that was a prospect that kept me in the Biden camp. But the more I’ve seen of our old president in the last several weeks the more I’ve become convinced that that too is worth the risk.
Let’s keep our eyes on the prize. The point is not to reelect Joe Biden. The point is not to have a president or vice president of any particular race or gender. The point is to defeat Donald Trump.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 
I totally agree. But the huge gap in your advocacy is that you fail to identify even a single person who can step forward And Win. The downward trend of the Far Left (not that they would agree) means that generic liberals and centrist voters would know that such a candidate would certainly lose.
Amy or Gretchen have either declared they are not candidates or are uncomfortable even talking about Biden‘s poor prospects.
Nobody electable can come forward without Joe stepping aside. But, unless Harris can first find a way to say she’s not interested (despite currently being second-in-line), Biden would have to endorse her. Concurrently, major Black leaders can’t be complicit in a deal where both Biden and Harris step aside without endorsing another Black.
I agree it should not be Biden/Harris in November. But you need to go further and tell how each of the critical players gets themselves out of their traps.
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Good questions and I don’t have clear answers. I think it’ll take a movement of several insiders, interest group leaders, rank and file Dems, commentators and second-rate center-left bloggers in the Midwest to keep up the chatter. Then it’ll become safer for more serious candidates to start making noises. Once that starts there could be a tipping point where Biden sees the writing on the wall.
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I agree that it needs to be a gradual and regular build. I think proponents (you) need to identify small bites.
For example, I think the generic Democrats and especially Blacks need to be urged to confront the reality that loyalty to Harris will certainly increase/guarantee a Trump victory. I’d prefer that Black leadership address that and come up with an alternative. Framed from a lens of what would happen if Biden had a major health event in June Democrats need to confess that Harris would not be a credible substitute.
While some can assert that Gavin is handsome and Left, maybe you could set up a magical debate including Newsom, Klobachar and Whitmer on some key questions that would energize swing state voters
Or: If Gretchen or Amy were drafted, who would she interview for VP? Would it include an Independent, or would she need to stick with more traditional high loyalty minorities.?
By doing an Imaginary Next Nine Months you could spin out some itineraries to help unenthusiastic readers.
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As is frequently the case, your commentary is spot on. It’s time for Old Joe to move on and save us from the national embarrassment of Trump 2.0. The investigator who noted that the president was a well-meaning but forgetful elderly gentleman was probably gratuitous, but he wasn’t wrong. Any objective observer, when looking at or listening to Biden, notices that he’s slipping. This morning, I heard a snippet of a fiery Biden speech and couldn’t understand the slurred first two words. And it’s simply not going to get better. There’s good reason that campaign advisors won’t let Biden give interviews, like the traditional Super Bowl softball toss: The more we see him, the more we realize he should hang it up and pass the baton. I’ve said it before, but I’m mighty glad that my Cardinals waved goodbye to Tony LaRussa while he still had his faculties, and I’d say running a country is considerably more difficult than managing a baseball team.
As a politician, Biden has proven to be pragmatic so I keep hoping that he’ll see that 82 is a fine age to retire.
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Thanks, Matt, but I’m sorry to hear that you’re a Cardinals fan. We’ve also got at least one Cubs fan in the fold here. I sometimes wonder where I’ve gone wrong in attracting readers with this kind of background.
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Coincident to your post today, Dave, I received an e-mail from my good friend Gavin Newsom. The Governor isn’t up until ’26, but is asking for $20 now so he can “go on the road and on offense…in red states too…” in order to “save our democracy”. I’m supposed to send my $20 to “Gavin Newsom’s Campaign For Democracy”. Should I send him a Jackson? Do you think “Campaign For Democracy” is some kind of code?
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When Gavin Newsom travelled to Israel and China, it appeared he was waiting in the wings. Still could happen. Biden looks and sounds worse with each appearance. The stress and travel is too much. Hope he sees the light, and bows out gracefully.
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Andy Beshear would be a good choice: a moderate D that wins in a red state.
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The real question is not what if he decides to stay in the run or quit?
The question is when do the doubters that will vote for him stop the commentary and get behind him? Its too late to replace him.
Let Trump win the base and lose the general election.
The past weekend chatter is more of the same chatter that’s been there for close to a year. He needs to own his state of health/age and run from the Rose Garden. Campaign events aren’t real public engagement, rather they are ticketed stage shows with tickets handed out to donors and insiders. The Average Voter has little chance to see the President let alone engage him\her. Stop the chatter, govern and campaign from The White House. Local political hacks stop saying the people need to see him and just get the darn vote out. He made the call last summer to run and keep Harris. We now vote to support him and have a house bound President and candidate. He should do more interviews and train up Harris or give her the boot.
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I’m holding off from forming an opinion until after the State of the Union address on March 7.
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I think Joe Biden drops out sooner than later. Best time is after Super Tuesday. He wraps up nomination, declares victory, and then endorse Michele Obama for President. Kamala Harris understands Biden’s election strategy and also agrees to not run for office in 2024. With a wink and a nod, Kamala devlares she would be a damn good Sect of State Dept. And one more outside possibility, Biden offers to run as VP on the Michele Obama for President ticket. Election 2024 will be wild and wooly. No scenario is beyond imagining.
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