Manchin’s Machinations

I’ve been an unapologetic defender of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Maybe not much longer.

I’ve defended Manchin against attacks from liberals because I think we should be grateful for his very existence. The guy is a Democrat who wins in a state that Donald Trump carried by 36 points, more than any other state but one. The Democrats control the Senate because of that. Chuck Schumer is Majority Leader because of that. Ketanji Brown Jackson is a Supreme Court Justice because of Manchin. Biden’s appointees to the federal bench are in place because of Manchin. Joe Biden was able to pass historic infrastructure, chip and climate bills because he was there. Yes, some of those were bipartisan, but do you really think that a Majority Leader Mitch McConnnel would have allowed Biden to achieve those successes? And yes, Manchin demanded some pro-fossil fuels provisions in the climate bill (he represents West Virginia, for cryin’ out loud), but those were minor concessions in context.

Liberals who expect Manchin to act like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are not dealing in reality. Now, unsurprisingly, Manchin is talking about leaving the party. I expect he will. You don’t go out of your way to bring up the subject without acting on it. I suppose he’ll become an independent by the fall, though I doubt he’d go so far as to join the Republicans.

That’s fine. The Democrats already have three independents who caucus with them. In practice it doesn’t mean much of anything. The real question is what does he do next? He’s considering running for reelection to the Senate or running for President, perhaps on the No Labels ticket.

Right now it seems more likely to me that he’ll do the latter. That’s because he’s trailing badly to popular West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, also a former Democrat although he might be better described as partisan-curious, who would challenge him for his seat next year. Rather than go down to defeat he’s likely to want to stay relevant, at least for another year or so.

And that would be a mistake for the country. Manchin has no chance of being President, but he has an excellent opportunity to help reelect Donald Trump. Some number of moderate Democrats, Independents and anti-Trump Republicans might vote for Manchin over two choices they don’t like. He’ll take some votes from Trump, sure, but he’s likely to take more from Biden. Biden might still win the popular vote, but Manchin could get enough support in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona to flip the Electoral College to Trump.

There’s simply no reason for Manchin to do this except ego or a desire to stick it to liberal Democrats who tried to make his life miserable when they should have been thanking him for winning in a hostile state. During debate over Biden’s massive Build Back Better bill, activists surrounded his houseboat and harassed him and his family. That was idiocy, but does he really want to deliver the country back into the hands of Trump over it?

If Manchin does anything but run for President, I’ll be in favor of Democrats erecting a statue for him outside of DNC headquarters, something they will not do, but should. If he does run as an independent I take back all the nice things I’ve said about him.