Be careful what you wish for. Democratic strategists really want Pres. Joe Biden to have a rematch with Donald Trump next year. I don’t think it’s worth the risk.
The hope that we might live in a post-Trump world is fading — maybe only Jack Smith can save us now. I reach that conclusion after glancing at the latest polling numbers that show Trump with a massive lead over the rest of the field for his party’s nomination.
A New York Times/Siena poll found Trump with 54% support among Republicans. His nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis, was at only 17%, Everybody else was at two or three percent, if they were lucky. And those numbers are no blip. Trump’s support has remained steadfast and it has not taken much of a hit from his growing list of indictments. If anything, his legal woes have helped his fundraising.
In the last quarter Trump raised $17 million. DeSantis bested him with $20 million, but to little avail. He’s had to lay off a third of his campaign staff and “reboot” his faltering effort. Nobody else in the field broke $6 million.
DeSantis’ campaign has the feel of Jeb Bush in 2016. Bush, coincidentally another Florida governor, raised a lot of money and had the insiders with him, but he just never caught fire, not even after he added an exclamation point after Jeb. You’d think that voters would see “Jeb!”, as opposed to just plain old “Jeb”, and immediately feel the fire in the belly. But it just didn’t happen. When DeSantis becomes “Ron!” we’ll know he’s done for sure.
If anybody else emerges from the pack it could be South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Scott was the first candidate not named Trump or DeSantis to break into the double digits in Iowa. He’s at 11%. And in the second quarter he raised more money than any of the other third tier candidates — $5.8 million, just ahead of Nikki Haley’s $5.6 million.
Scott also has a rather upbeat message in welcome contrast to the ugly and mean messaging of Trump, DeSantis and most of the others back in the pack. That sets him apart and may account for his relatively better showing, but it may also indicate that about 11% tops out for anyone who seems like a pre-Trump Republican.
All of which is to say that, it may be only the third inning of a nine inning ball game, but Trump’s got what amounts to a 10 run lead and he’s not playing the Atlanta Braves (painful reference for Brewers fans after this weekend).
So, Democratic insiders (again with the Jack Smith caveat) seem more and more likely to get what they want. For me, I’d rather have Tim Scott as Biden’s opponent because, while Scott’s more conservative than I am, I don’t fear that he’ll destroy the country. I’d accept the fact that Scott would be a stronger opponent to Biden in exchange for not being at risk of another four years of Trump. And also consider the likelihood that Trump would not go quietly into the night. He’d likely run a third party candidacy, even from his jail cell if necessary, and that would assure a second term for Biden.
Finally, a roundup of July polling by Real Clear Politics finds Biden with a slim lead of just under 1% in a matchup with Trump. Of course, the numbers that matter are the margins in a handful of states, like Wisconsin. But keep in mind that last time Biden won the electoral vote by a total of only 43,000 votes in three states, even less than the 77,000 votes that elected Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And Biden’s own polling numbers have been stuck in anemic territory, seemingly no matter what he does.
Democratic insiders who want Trump are playing with fire, and it’s not just the false fire of a desperate exclamation point.
Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos 