Prepare for Trump, the Sequel

I had planned to save this one for the fall, but now I feel like it’s not too early to start preparing for a second Trump administration.

We can’t predict the future and nothing’s a sure thing, but we can make some educated guesses about probabilities. Now, in the wake of the reaction (or lack of one) to Trump’s conviction in his hush money trial, I put Biden’s chances of re-election at around 40%. He certainly can still win, but I think the odds aren’t in his favor and they’re getting worse.

The New York Times polled almost 2,000 people who had been polled earlier and found that there was only slight movement toward Biden after Trump’s convictions. And, of course, it’s likely that even that will disappear by November. In addition, Trump’s website crashed after the conviction with people trying to contribute money to his campaign. So, overall, I’d say the convictions were a net plus for Trump.

Adding to my discouragement is the fact that my party sees what’s happening and finds itself incapable of doing anything about it. It’s like being on a two-lane highway and seeing a truck coming at you in your lane. But with plenty of time to take evasive action, instead you say, ‘gee, that’s unfortunate.’ Splat.

It’s not that another candidate would necessarily beat Trump either. Again, it’s a matter of the odds. But I’d put the chances of Governors Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshear winning at around, say, 52%. Not a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination, but much better than Biden’s chances. (Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom’s prospects would rate lower than even Biden’s.)

In what other business would an organization see that its product was so unpopular with consumers and not change it? And yet here, with the future of American democracy at stake, the Democrats insist that they they’re stuck with a losing candidate and that’s that. Their latest desperate strategy is to give up on talking about Biden altogether and to bet everything on reminding voters how awful Trump is. Good luck with that. Trump has been everywhere forever. People know full well who he is. If you don’t despise him by now you never will.

So essentially, my party has a bad candidate, an even more unpopular vice presidential candidate and a questionable strategy to overcome their handicaps. Thus my decision to start preparing now for Trump 2.

Now to the actual program.

Canned goods are a good idea. I’ll be stockpiling them at my north woods cabin, which by the way, I plan to spend a lot more time at. I’ll need to get away from the overwrought angst of my neighbors on the Near Westside of Madison. Trump’s first election drove them to the rim of the canyon and George Floyd pushed them over it. It’s hard to imagine where they’ll go if Trump wins again, but I really don’t want to be around to see it.

Also, the UP contains actual Trump voters. I know some of them. They’re nice people. They help me lift heavy stuff and they give us fresh eggs from their chickens. I’m sure they conduct Satanic rituals involving the blood of liberal children now and then, but to each his own. Who I am to judge?

Next I’m going to look on the sunny side of life. I’m going to invest a little faith in the strength of our institutions. Think of the whole Trump thing as a stress test for the system. We survived the first round. Let’s see what we’ve got left in the tank for the next onslaught. For one thing, Trump’s appointments to the Supreme Court hardly seem willing to do his bidding. I have some faith that checks and balances will check and balance a madman at the helm. And maybe what doesn’t kill us really will make us stronger.

Third, I’m going to double down on my efforts to understand Trump voters. (See the thing about the eggs above.) Even way back when I thought Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in, I wrote that after she won our first priority should be to understand and address the legitimate frustrations that forced so many people to vote for a man like Donald Trump.

While things didn’t turn out as planned, that project is more important than ever. If these people are going to be running the country for another four years, what are they really about? I don’t mean Trump himself or the people around him. They’re just a basketful of deplorables. And I don’t care much about country club Republicans who vote for him because he’ll lower their taxes. But I do care about blue collar voters, erstwhile Democrats, who vote for Trump as a way of sticking it to condescending liberals. The real animating force behind Trump is his notion of “owning the libs.”

So, how do those of us who are left-leaning centrists and neither know-it-all liberals nor quasi-fascists reconnect with those folks? That’s the central question of our time and not just here, but all over the world.

Maybe all this preparation will prove unnecessary. Biden’s behind but still in the race and we’ve got another five months to go. But I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed. And also, there’s nothing to be lost. No matter what happens I really like canned peaches.